Friday, August 14, 2009
Three areas of Concern.
Well, our tropical depression was really worked over by dry air intrusion and strong wind shear Wednesday. Even though we saw a few storms develop yesterday near the center of circulation, the easterly shear was enough to downgrade the system to a tropical low. There is still a chance this system could redevelop but it will take some time. Most of our mid to long range tropical computer models keep this system weak and not a threat to the US Mainland but there are one or two outliers that develop this system back to a tropical storm. But even these models turn this system out into the Atlantic.
Disturbance number two looks very healthy and will more than likely be a tropical depression later today or early Saturday. Most of the mid to long range tropical computer models are locking in on this system and have been for days. It looks as though this system could be a hurricane that we will have to watch very closely by the middle of next week. The GFDL shows this system as a Major Hurricane with top winds of 115 mph by Wednesday morning entering the Windward Islands.
This model also shows a strong ridge of high pressure building west across the Atlantic and this would help steer this storm towards Southern Florida and possibly the Gulf of Mexico. Again we are a long way away from this timeframe and many variables can and will change so stay tuned for the latest.
Disturbance number three is interacting with an upper level low so right now tropical development would be very slow, if at all. This system should drift west around the outer edge of the strong Atlantic ridge of high pressure giving East Texas a good shoot of tropical moisture leading to afternoon and evening thunderstorms next week.