Wednesday, January 12, 2011

Fellow Texas Tigers

The above photo is of my daughter Halen and me after our snow the day before the big game. Below is a photo from some fellow Texas Tigers the Gilbert family with their big Auburn snowman. If there are any other fellow Tigers that have any Auburn snow pictures please send them my way to Thanks and WAR EAGLE!!

Saturday, January 8, 2011

Heavy snow appears likely for parts of East Texas Sunday

A significant winter storm is forecast to develop later tonight and move into the area on Sunday. An area of low pressure in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere is moving across the Panhandle this morning and will drop down to the Hill Country this evening before moving northeast across East Texas tomorrow afternoon. At the same time an area of low pressure at the surface will develop along the Texas Gulf coast throwing Gulf moisture across East Texas. Precipitation should begin to fall before sunrise Sunday morning but the big challenge in this forecast is, what type of precipitation. Right now based on the latest data, this is the what we are expecting.
Between 6:00AM and noon we will see a mixture of rain sleet and snow across the area. For areas along and east of a Marshal Center line we could be looking at freezing rain as well. For areas west of that line, temperatures should remain above freezing during this time period so no ice accumulations are expected.
Between Noon and 3:00PM the upper level low pressure will be moving into the area bringing much colder air above the surface. As this happens most of the precipitation north and west of a line from Marshal to Jacksonville to Palestine should begin to chance over to snow. South and east of this line a mixture of rain sleet and snow can be expected as far south as Crockett to Lufkin to Center. Areas East of the Marshal to Center line may be dealing will small ice accumulations.
Between 3:00PM and 6:00PM the upper level low should be over East Texas changing all precipitation to snow. It is during this time that significant accumulations of snow could occur along and just to the north of the low's eventual path. The best chance of seeing four or more inches of snow will be along and north of a Palestine to Jacksonville to Marshall line. If heavy snow bands develop then some parts of East Texas could see more than six inches of snow.
Between 6:00PM and Midnight the upper low will be moving East of the area. During this time accumulating snowfall should begin to end. Right now it looks as though all of East Texas could see at least 1 inch of snow north of a Crockett to Lufkin to Hemphill line with areas between I-20 and I-30 possible seeing 4 to 6 inches or more of snow.
Again, this forecast is dependent on the development of a surface low in the northern gulf and the eventual path of the upper low to our west. Please stay tuned for the latest changes in the forecast over the weekend.

Friday, January 7, 2011

Rain sleet and snow to hit East Texas Sunday

A strong storm system will develop across the northern Gulf this weekend bringing some much needed rain to East Texas. Precipitation forecast show much of the area could receive between one and two inches between Saturday night and Monday morning. At the same time this surface low is developing across the northern Gulf, and upper level low pressure will be moving into our northern counties. It is this upper level low that will provide enough cold air in the mid and upper levels for snow to develop. Right now it looks as though temperatures Sunday afternoon and evening will be in the middle 30s from I-20 north. Although this is above freezing, it is cold enough for snow to reach the surface. Based on the forecast intensity of the precipitation, it does appear some areas of East Texas could see accumulations of snow Sunday afternoon and evening. The best chance of seeing accumulating snow is over our northeastern counties, mainly along and north of a Sulphur Springs to Jefferson line. Here one to two inches of snow with locally heavier amounts could occur.
As for the Tyler Longview and Jacksonville areas, it appears right now we will mostly see a rain event mixed with sleet and snow at times late Sunday. At this time no accumulations are expected but this could change based on the eventual path of the low pressure.
In the Lufkin Nacogdoches and Crockett areas mainly a cold rain is expected. If the low pressure tracks farther south, then a mix of sleet and snow could occur. As with all winter forecast in Texas, a lot could change between now and Sunday. If the low track farther south, much of East Texas could see an accumulating snow event. If the low tracks farther north, all areas of East Texas would probably just receive rain.
Once Sunday’s storm system moves out, much colder air will move into the area. Highs by Tuesday and Wednesday still only appear to be in the 30s. A fast moving disturbance could even produce a few flurries during the mid week period but no travel problems are anticipated with this system. Please stay tuned to the latest weather information on this developing winter storm.

Wednesday, January 5, 2011

Next Week Still Looks Cold, Maybe Colder The Following Week

Arctic air is still scheduled to make its way into East Texas Next week. Right now it appears that a strong arctic front will move through the area late Monday or early Tuesday bringing the coldest temperatures of the New Year. Temperatures behind this front will more than likely remain in the 30s for highs next Wednesday and Thursday before winds begin to turn out of the southeast next Friday warming us back into the 50s. It also appears we will see a good deal of cloud cover during the middle part of next week which will actually help us out. Without the cloud cover we could easily drop into the lower teen next week during the night time hours. But thanks to the clouds, most areas will only drop into the lower to middle 20s, still cold but not quite as bad as we could be. We will also be watching a disturbance in the mid levels of the atmosphere on Wednesday. As with most arctic air masses, this one will be very dry. However, with this upper level energy a few snow flurries could be squeezed out across the area. As it looks right now no accumulation would occur thanks to the very dry air mass.

Once this first batch of cold air moves out of the area our attention will focus to the possibility of an even colder air mass moving into the area the following week. The upper air pattern is forecast on Saturday the 15th shows the jet stream surging north over Alaska and northeastern Siberia. This is typically a pattern that sends some of the coldest arctic outbreaks into the United States. This is the same pattern we saw last January that sent temperatures into the upper single digits and lower teen across East Texas. Right now it looks as though temperatures could be as low as 10 degrees in the area if what is forecast occurs.

Monday, January 3, 2011

You Think The 20s Are Cold!

From The National Weather Service Forth WorthAs we ushered in the New Year fairly cold temperatures greeted us this morning. Some of our East Central locations dropped to near 20 degrees this morning. But, if the long term forecast models we use to peek into the future are right, 20 degrees could feel balmy by the middle of January. It appears the upper level wind pattern will become favorable for an arctic outbreak to invade the country during the second and third week of January as the jet stream will surge north into northern Alaska and then plunge south across the continental United States. This is the same upper air pattern that tapped very cold air from the Arctic bringing the coldest air in over ten years to East Texas last January.

Now a lot can change between now and then with this forecast being over 10 days out but, right now it looks as though two chunks of arctic air will invade the country; one around the 10th and the second around the 17th of January. The first air mass appears to be much below normal and if it does move into East Texas we would see lows in the teens and highs in the 30s. This is not quite as could as last January but it is well below normal.

The second chunk of arctic air is being advertised right now as some of the coldest air seen in years. If, and this is a big if, this does occur, this could very well be the coldest air mass parts of the country has seen this new Millennium. The current forecast surface temperatures for Monday morning the 17th place the 0 degree line south of I-20 meaning much of East Texas would be below zero.
This would smash records for that date which are in the lower and middle teens and would come close to setting all time record lows for January.

Now with that said, I seriously doubt we will see temperatures as cold as advertised. We typically see long range forecast models producing extremely cold air this far out. I will say I have not seen it advertised this cold before this far south. Before we hit the lower teens in most areas last January our long range forecast models were advertising temperatures dropping to near zero. So based on what happened last year it is logical to think temperatures between 8 and 12 degrees could occur with this outbreak.

Again, this all depends on the eventual placement of the jet stream. If the upper air pattern changes, the cold air could be forced farther east and miss our area of the country. Or it could remain locked in Canada. Only time will tell. But based on the information available to us right now, it does appear some very cold air will move into the area the second and third week of this month. Stay tuned!