Thursday, August 20, 2009
Severe Weather Possible Tonight.
An early season cold front will move into East Texas tomorrow and out ahead of this front tonight, showers and storms will develop. A few of these storms tonight and early tomorrow morning could be severe with gusty winds and small hail being the main threat. The greatest risk of severe weather will be along and north of Interstate 20, closer to the upper level support needed for organized severe storms.
Late this morning the cold front was located just north of the red river with thunderstorms developing in eastern Oklahoma. This afternoon with daytime heating, the atmosphere will become moderately unstable. As the cold front moves into this environment it will force the warm moist air up causing showers and thunderstorms to develop. Winds in the mid levels of the atmosphere are set up to where strong straight line winds could become a problem as a line of storms develops. The mid levels of the atmosphere are not that cold this time of the year so very large hail is not a concern however, we could see a couple of reports of hail the size of quarters in the strongest of storms. As this line of storms moves south through the area Friday morning, the storms will move away from the greatest are of upper level energy causing the storms to weaken.
Behind this line of storms, much drier air will filter into the area. Some of our computer models hint at dewpoint temperatures in the low 50s by Sunday morning. If this holds true we could see morning lows drop into the upper 50s and low 60s Sunday morning in parts of East Texas but for now we are sticking with lows in the middle to upper 60s.