Hurricane Gustav now a Cat4!!!!

Now Gustav has exploded from a tropical storm to a category 4 hurricane in less than 24 hours.

Latest Advisory from the Nation Hurricane Center:

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
GUSTAV HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AND NOW HAS MAXIMUM WINDS
NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES GUSTAV AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT ABOUT 200 PM
EDT TO MODIFY THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITIES. THE SPECIAL
PUBLIC ADVISORY WILL TAKE THE PLACE OF THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY PREVIOUSLY SCHEDULED FOR THAT TIME.

Gustav Explodes

Gustav explodes over night like expected. Gustav increased in strength from a tropical storm to a category 3 hurricane in less than 18 hours. That is almost unheard of. Gustav’s rapid intensification has calmed down a bit but, he could be a Category 4 before hitting Cuba. The southern end of Cuba will not weaken Gustav too much. He will probably emerge in the southern Gulf as a strong Category 2. From here he will cross the southern loop current in the Gulf. I would not be surprised if we were looking at a Category 5 storm late Sunday in to Monday. Now I still believe Gustav will weaken before hitting the coast, more than likely a strong Cat 2 or a weak Cat 3. Most of the computer models have come to an agreement of bringing Gustav onshore just west of Lafayette LA. A few are beginning to hint that Gustav could stall right before hitting the coast and then move southwest into Mexico but this guidance is in the minority.

The Potential Effects of Gustav

Gustav has the potential to be a very dangerous, land falling hurricane early next week across parts of the Gulf Coast States. Gustav spent most of yesterday over the southeastern tip of Haiti causing the low levels of the tropical system to weaken and become disorganized. At the same time in the upper levels of the atmosphere, conditions seem favorable for development. Hurricane hunters found a surprise with Gustav this morning, the center of the storm had reorganized farther to the southwest over the warm waters of the Caribbean causing the winds to jump to near hurricane strength once again. Gustav could become a hurricane later today but he has one more obstacle to overcome, Jamaica. The current forecast track takes Gustav over the small island and this could once again disrupt the organization of Gustav today. Once Gustav moves away from Jamaica, conditions appear favorable for rapid intensification. Very warm waters and favorable upper level atmospheric conditions will allow Gustav to become a strong hurricane before reaching the Gulf of Mexico. As Gustav crosses the Southern Gulf of Mexico he will cross a region know as the Southern Gulf Loop Current. This is an area of very warm water not just at the surface, but down to a depth of 200 to 300 feet. It is this area of deep, warm water that has caused many storms to explode in strength if the conditions for development are favorable. Some storms of note that have exploded in intensity over this region are Opal of 1995, Katarina of 2005, Rita of 2005, and Wilma of 2005. The image below shows the Southern Loop Current. Notice the bright red colors. This shows water temperatures between 88°F and 90°F, giving a lot of fuel for Gustav’s development.




So the big question is where will Gustav go? Forecast tracts have consistently sent Gustav to the Louisiana Gulf Cost sometime late Monday or Early Tuesday. Right now there is a ridge of high pressure located over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico and this is forcing Gustav to move west. Over the next couple of days we expect this area of high pressure to weaken, allowing Gustav to turn more northwest. The farther west Gustav moves before turning to the northwest, the farther west the eventual land fall will be. Another big factor on where Gustav will go is an area of high pressure that will develop across the Ohio Valley Sunday. Gustav will be forced along the outer edge of this area of high pressure. The stronger this high pressure, the farther west Gustav will go. The image below is the current forecast track from the Nation Hurricane Center.



One not of interest, the average error for day five for a tropical systems location is 300 miles. So everyone with interests along the Gulf Coast, and with current fuel prices that is everyone, should continue to monitor Gustav.

Where are you going Fay?

That is a question we will be answering over the next few days. Right now it appears Fay will drift west across the Florida Peninsula and then the Panhandle. The big question is will she move far enough south, over the Gulf, allowing Fay to strengthen once again, possibly into a hurricane? The image above shows the forecast tracks from various computer models the National Hurricane Center uses to determine their official track. As you can see, the majority keep Fay right along the Florida Coast. This would not allow her to strengthen and more than likely Fay would remain a depression. You can also see that one of the models, the Navy’s GFDN (Dark Blue), their tropical cyclone forecast model, tracks Fay across the northern Gulf. This is a worst case scenario. Fay would more than likely become a hurricane over the warm Gulf waters and head in the direction of New Orleans.


Ultimately Fay’s track will be determined by the overall atmospheric pattern and steering currents. Currently, a large area of high pressure is off the New England coast acting like a brick wall, not allowing Fay to move north. The outer edge of the high will steer Fay to the west over the next couple of days. There is also a trough of low pressure over the Northern Plains that could turn Fay north into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys but, this trough will be replaced by another area of high pressure beginning next week. It is this second area of high pressure that will have the greatest effect on Fay’s future. If the high strengthens fast enough, Fay will remain on a southern track and could move as far west as the Texas Gulf Coast. If the high remains a little weaker, the Fay could squeeze between the two areas of high pressure, staying over land, weakening, and then being picked up by the continental westerly winds. The second scenario seems more likely at this time but, Fay has been surprising everyone so we will be watching this situation very closely.

Interesting Fay............

To say Tropical Storm Fay is a unique system would be an understatement. Fay is one of the rare tropical systems that actually strengthened as she moved on land. Early Tuesday Morning, Fay came ashore near Cape Romano, FL, about 20 miles south of Naples with top winds of 60mph and a rather rugged eye wall structure. However, Fay’s eye wall structure became much better organized while over land just south of Lake Okeechobee. In fact, Doppler radar indicated a well defined eye for Fay with winds close to hurricane strength before moving over Lake Okeechobee. The official statement from the National Hurricane Center showed the winds increased from 60mph to 65mph while over the mainland. So how did this happen? Tropical Storm Fay has two things working in her favor as she made landfall. First, the topography of South Florida which consists of the Everglades, a flat grassy wetland area, reduces the amount of friction the storm will encounter leading to a lack of weakening. Second, the upper levels of the atmosphere were very conducive to tropical storm development by providing Fay a large area of upper level outflow, allowing the storm in the lower levels of the atmosphere to strengthen. Notice the radar loop of Fay over South West Florida showing a symmetric eye wall, a sign of a strong tropical system.



Doppler radar velocity data indicated winds of nearly 70 knots, approaching hurricane force. The strongest surface wind reported during Fay was 78mph on the western shore of Lake Okeechobee at Moore Haven. Also, the water temperature in Lake Okeechobee is nearly 92°F, which could also add to the sustained strength over South Florida.

So where will Fay head next? Well it all depends on a developing area of high pressure over the Mid West this weekend. All indications are Fay will turn to the west and move across the Florida Panhandle, this will keep her circulation over land not allowing her to strengthen. There is a chance that her circulation could move back over water in the northern Gulf. The water temperature here is in the upper 80’s so if this does happen, rapid intensification could occur. It does appear the chances Fay, whatever becomes of her, making it into East Texas are very low. More than likely Fay will be picked up by a through early next week and move over the Mid West into the North East.

My Big Weight Loss Plan.........

Well, another week has gone by and three more pounds are gone. At 207 pounds, this is the lowest weight I have been in over two years. I also went to my doctor this week and got some great news. In six weeks my cholesterol has dropped 94 points. That’s right, 94 points!!! My blood pressure has dropped significantly as well, although it still needs to come down just a bit. I have added a very tasty low carb meal on the recipe link to the right of the page. Just click on the picture and look for the Blackened Redfish recipe. Feeling great and look forward to dropping below the Mendoza line, for all you baseball fans, in a couple of weeks.

My Big Weight Loss Plan.....................

Just wanted to post an update on my progress with the Atkins Diet. I have now lost a total of 16 pounds in my first two weeks on the diet, down to 210 pounds. Only 35 more pounds to go until I reach my goal weight of 175 pounds and 45 pound until my ideal weight, 165 pounds. After two weeks on the plan I find myself having more energy during the day and not feeling hungry between meals. Sometimes I even find that I have to force myself to eat due to a lack of appetite. This surely wasn’t the case two weeks ago when I was constantly looking for something to snack on between meals. As for my meals, I have been enjoying a great variety of food. I will start adding low carb recipes to the “Grant’s Menu Link” soon. Check back from time to time to see what great tasting entrees are leading to my weight loss.

The Derecho!!!!!

As we wait and wish for showers and thunderstorms, parts of the country are getting rocked with severe weather today. A classic wind storm across the upper Midwest known as a Derecho is causing a great deal of problems for our friends to the north causing numerous wind reports in excess of 80mph and very large hail, up to baseball size, have been reported. Below is a short radar clip of the Derecho as it moves into Western Minnesota.



Many times Derechos develop form a single Supercell thunderstorm that becomes outflow dominate, undercutting the updraft needed to sustain the Supercell. Along this outflow boundary, new storms fire and continue to grow in strength. As the system grows, the speed it travels increases and widespread wind damage can occur. Winds as high as 100mph to 120mph can occur along a Derecho causing tornado like damage. In many cases, the Derecho is worse than many small tornadoes as much of a Derecho’s wind can be in the EF-2 tornado range. Imagine a swath 50 to 100 miles wide of EF-2 tornado like winds. Damage can be tremendous. Also, many times on the north end of the Derecho, a rotating comma head can form producing small tornadoes. In the clip above you can make out a rotating comma head. There were numerous tornado warnings along this line in the area of that comma head. An event very similar to this occurred earlier this year with an EF-1 tornado in Kilgore and Longview. A bow echo moved through with a rotating comma head producing a 21 mile long path of EF-0 and EF-1 tornado damage. There have been many Derecho events across the Southern Plains. For more information on historic Derecho events click the link below.

More Info

Hello Dolly?????

The remains of Dolly could bring some much needed relief over the next couple of days. The moisture from Dolly is causing heavy rain and flooding conditions across Missouri today. The center of what once was Dolly is located over Kansas this morning and she continues to move to the east. A trough of low pressure extends south into North Central Texas today and this could cause a few showers and storms to form today across our North West Counties. This trough will slowly move across North Texas giving a few some much needed rain. There is a slight chance that the remains of Dolly could continue riding the ridge of high pressure and enter the Eastern Gulf of Mexico late this weekend. Indications are this moisture could move westward and reach East Texas by next Wednesday. Again, the chances of this occurring are pretty slim as it looks as though the remains of Dolly are getting caught up in the westerly flow, carrying her moisture away from East Texas.

My Big Weight Loss Plan........

As many of you can tell, I have been struggling with my weight the past year. There has been a lot of debate the last couple of weeks on which of the three “Big Diets” work the best, a low carb, a low fat, or a Mediterranean diet. I can tell you from experience, that the low carb, or Atkins Diet, worked for me. A few years ago while working in the restaurant industry, a few managers got together to have a competition on who could lose the most weight. The winner would win $500. So at 205 pounds, I entered the contest, I am a very competitive individual. The weight loss contest began in late April. By the end of June, the contest ended and I had slimmed down to an amazing 159 pounds, my wife said I was too skinny. All though the money for the contest was never paid, I gained a much healthier life style, my blood pressure was low and, my cholesterol was at a healthy level again. So I really didn’t mind not getting the money.

I continued to live this healthy life style until I was hired for a new position in which I had to spend a lot of time on the road. Fast food became the regular and the weight piled back on and I have struggled ever since. Two weeks ago I went to the doctor and reached a new peak weight, 226!!!!! My blood pressure is way up and my cholesterol is at an unhealthy level. That did it! I decided to go back on the Atkins diet and this time, I have you to hold me accountable. So I am here to tell everyone my goal weight and will keep you updated with what I eat and my weight loss progress. From time to time I will put some of my favorite low carb recipes on this blog too. This morning I weighed 215 pounds, that’s eleven pounds that are gone for good. My goal weight is to reach 175 pounds by Christmas but I hope to continue to drop down to 165. Hopefully, you will notice a big change in my appearance over the next few weeks.

Dangerous Heat Possible

The hottest temperatures of the year so far are expected to greet East Texas this weekend as many locations could top the 100 degree mark. Another strong, mid level, ridge of high pressure is building across the state keeping conditions mainly dry and hot. This is not good news for Texas as much of the state is once again under drought conditions. Many towns across East Texas have already placed outdoor watering bans into effect, and more will probably follow. According to the Keetch-Byram Drought Index, which measures drought severity on a scale from 0-800, 800 being the worst, most of East Texas is beginning to experience another drought. The chart below shows the KBDI readings between 400 and 800.

















Outdoor burning will also become a problem this weekend as very hot and dry conditions dry out vegetation across our region. Temperatures will average between 98and 101 degrees this weekend with heat index values close to 105, the danger category for being outdoors. The heat index is a value used to determine how your body will react to the combination of air temperature and the amount of moisture in the air. The more moisture that is in the air, the harder it is for your body to cool itself because it takes much longer for your sweat to evaporate, cooling your skin. This also causes you to become dehydrated faster because it takes more of your bodies fluids to create a cooling effect. Below is a chart you can use to determine what the heat index is where you live.

So if you have to be outdoors this weekend, remember to drink plenty of water, soda and alcohol can cause dehydration. Also, don’t forget the sun screen. Take it from me, you do not want your scalp to burn, it is no fun. The best thing to do is to stay in an air conditioned environment, maybe take in a movie?

Dolly, Please Bring Rain!!!

Dolly is expected to hit the Gulf Coast near Brownsville, TX around Midday tomorrow as a Category 1 hurricane. Very heavy rain and strong gusty winds will occur across south Texas over the next couple of days but over our region of the world, the heat continues. Now there is some good news for East Texas. Dolly will wrap some moisture back into our region starting tomorrow so our chances of afternoon and evening thunderstorms will increase. This will also cool our temperatures a bit over the next couple of days. However, our strong ridge of high pressure that has been dominating our weather will continue to push Dolly off to our south and build back into our region, heating us back up for the weekend. We could be entering a period of extended dry weather with our only chances of rain coming from isolated afternoon thunderstorms. There are signs that our weather pattern could change towards the end of July but, until then it looks hot and dry for at least the next week after Dolly’s moisture leaves East Texas.

The Legacy of Bertha

The longest lasting July tropical system on record is still holding her own in the North Atlantic. Tropical Storm Bertha, once a category 3 hurricane, has been going strong since July 3rd when she formed off the African Coast. If you think you remember a Bertha from earlier years, you would be correct. In fact, there have been six tropical systems named Bertha in the Atlantic Basin, three reached hurricane strength. The last Bertha to form was a tropical storm in 2002 that affected the Louisiana and Texas Gulf coast with heavy rains and top winds of 40mph. The National Hurricane Center recycles the names of tropical systems until a storm causes significant loss of property or life, and then the name is retired. There is a chance Bertha may finally be retired, not because of her destruction, but because of her records. Not only is Bertha the longest lasting July tropical system, she is also the farthest east pre-August forming tropical system and major hurricane on record.

Global Warming, Is the Debate Over?

Global Warming Catastrophe Alarmists would have you believe the debate is over. There is no doubt the world is warming and man is to blame. If we do not change our ways the earth as we know it will cease to exist. Many cities today will be under water. Hurricanes and tornadoes will become much stronger and occur more frequently. We have all heard this because the “main stream media” loves to promote Armageddon. But what do that facts state? Well over the next few days I plan to point out a few facts you may not have heard so you can draw your own conclusion on Global Warming.


“Climate Change to Spur Extreme Weather”
This is just one of the many News headlines you have read or seen about the effects Man Made Global Warming will have on the Earth’s climate. Well I want to dive into this spring’s active severe weather and flooding so everyone can get a better understanding on how storm systems work and what causes them to be so severe. We have all heard about how bad this year’s tornado season has been and how many climatologists are blaming Global Warming for the severity of the tornadoes this year. I think a better argument is many ingredients have to come together to produce severe storms and tornadoes and this year, the ingredients have come together more than in previous years, but why? This past May was actually the 4th coldest on record during the satellite era, the same time period Climatologists have been studying the warming of the Earth. During May, the Rocky Mountain States along with the Northern Plains and Canadian Provinces have been much cooler than normal. At the same time, the Bermuda High, an area of high pressure that forms over the Atlantic during the summer months, has built in across the Southeastern United States. This has pushed the average storm track to the north across the Midwest and Plains States. Now the fact that May’s Temperatures in the northern latitudes have been cooler than normal has lead to a greater temperature gradient than normal. This has allowed the Jet Stream to be much stronger than it usually is this time of the year causing the numerous outbreaks of tornadoes. This has also lead to a large amount of rain to fall over the same areas, causing very bad, if not record flooding in some areas. So before we blame these events on Global Warming, let’s all understand better what set these chains of events in motion.

To Drill or Not to Drill

The great debate over our energy need has become the number one issue facing the American Public today. Now it is up to Congress to decide whether or not we can drill for oil off of our own coast lines. Now I am in no way an expert in economics but I do have an opinion on how drilling for oil off the United States Shores and other places in our country will affect the price of gasoline at the pump. The price of oil continues to climb with no end in site mainly, in my opinion, due to speculation on the fact that we have no concrete plan to terminate our dependency on foreign oil. By formatting a plan to stop our dependency on foreign oil, the price of oil will drop, regardless of the fact it will take up to ten years to see any oil from our new drilling sites.

So why can’t we drill in more locations off our coast acquiring an extra 80 billion plus barrels of oil? The main arguments have been maintaining a pristine marine environment and needing to develop alternative, reusable energy sources. Now I am a firm believer in developing new sources of energy but, this will have no affect on the price of gas now. We are at least ten years away from everyone being able to afford hybrids and hydrogen cell vehicles so in my mind that argument does not work. As for keeping a pristine marine environment, offshore oil rigs provide artificial reefs which allow marine life to flourish. In most cases, within six months after an offshore rig has been placed, a thriving ecosystem develops with all forms of marine life. Before rigs were placed in the western Gulf of Mexico, the marine life was rather scarce, now some of the world’s best fishing and diving is near and around these rigs. What about the amount of oil which leaks in the Seas while drilling? Well, this amount fails in comparison to the amount of oil which naturally seeps into the oceans. 180 million gallons of oil naturally leak into the world’s oceans, making up near 62% of the total amount of oil in the Seas. The percentage of oil from oil platform leaks, less than 1%. Now I by no means believe we can drill our way out of our energy crisis but, I do believe we can lower the cost of our energy through drilling while we develop new and reusable forms of energy.

So in my mind, it is a no brainer………………..Drill now!!!!!!!