Saturday, August 30, 2008

Gustav Explodes

Gustav explodes over night like expected. Gustav increased in strength from a tropical storm to a category 3 hurricane in less than 18 hours. That is almost unheard of. Gustav’s rapid intensification has calmed down a bit but, he could be a Category 4 before hitting Cuba. The southern end of Cuba will not weaken Gustav too much. He will probably emerge in the southern Gulf as a strong Category 2. From here he will cross the southern loop current in the Gulf. I would not be surprised if we were looking at a Category 5 storm late Sunday in to Monday. Now I still believe Gustav will weaken before hitting the coast, more than likely a strong Cat 2 or a weak Cat 3. Most of the computer models have come to an agreement of bringing Gustav onshore just west of Lafayette LA. A few are beginning to hint that Gustav could stall right before hitting the coast and then move southwest into Mexico but this guidance is in the minority.

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