Around 9:30 last night a storm quickly pulsed up over the Lake Tyler area of southeastern Smith County. The storm did not last very long but was loud enough to wake me so I grabbed my camera and snapped a few shots. I was able to capture a couple of lightning bolts. The storm was over a few minutes before 10:00 PM so it was off to bed again.
We are watching the tropics closely as an area of low pressure could become our first tropical system of the year off the African Coast. Now this system is still a long way from affecting any area of the United States and would be at least a week away from entering the Gulf of Mexico if it does develop. We are seeing a strong ridge of high pressure over the central Atlantic and this would help steer the tropical system south and possibly move into the Gulf or Caribbean. Again it is a long way away but it is never too soon to start thinking of a “Plan of Action” if this system holds together and moves into the Gulf. The 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season has been very quiet so far this year but it only takes one storm to make a quiet tropical season turn into a destructive tropical season. This year’s hurricane season is very similar to the 1992 Atlantic Hurricane season. Like 2009, the 1992 hurricane season started of very quiet thanks in part to an El Nino weather pattern causing variations in the jet stream we normally do not see this time of the year. It is these variations in the mid and upper level winds that have sheared apart any tropical low before the system could strengthen to tropical storm or hurricane strength. On August 14th, 1992 a tropical low moved off the African coast and began to strengthen. As it moved west, it encountered very warm waters and light atmospheric winds allowing it to become a tropical depression and finally a named tropical storm. The name this storm was given was Andrew. In case you don’t remember, Andrew became only the 3rd category 5 hurricane to strike the United States and was the costliest natural disaster to effect the United States until 2005 when Katrina hit the Gulf Coast. The atmosphere over the northern Atlantic is very similar to the set up we saw in mid August 1992. A strong ridge of high pressure is dominating the central Atlantic Ocean and this will help keep the tropical system on a westward track, making a North American landfall more likely. Long range computer models currently track this system west and eventually turn the system to the north along the Eastern United States Coastline. It must be noted however we are still at least seven days away from this system being a threat to the Atlantic or Gulf Coasts of the United States. Many changes can and probably will occur before then so stay tuned for the latest information.
Good Monday Morning East Texas. As advertised last week, a very wet and unsettled weather pattern is setting up for East Texas this week. We are watching a disturbance over the Texas Panhandle this morning that will move in to East Texas this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will be likely later today with heavy rain a good possibility. Overnight tonight we will see more storms develop out to our west and move into the area giving us another chance of heavy rain. More disturbances are lined up to our north and west and will continue to slide across East Texas throughout the work week. The threat for severe weather is low however, if we see any breaks in the clouds today or tomorrow allowing for additional daytime heating, the atmosphere will become more unstable than forecast and storms could be stronger with a hail and high wind threat. We could also see a flooding threat develop across East Texas this week. Flash Flood watches will probably be issued before the week is out for parts of the area as rain fall could reach 6 inches plus is some areas, especially across Northeast Texas. Stay tuned to your East Texas News Leader for the latest weather information throughout the week.
As fast as this storm developed, this storm died. Although I have not had any severe weather reports as of yet, I would not be surprised if someone in northern Rusk County received quarter size hail and very strong winds as this storm collapsed. I need to start taking my camera with me where ever I go. This storm was very impressive from Downtown Tyler looking east. I did make a couple of movies from radar grabs so you can see how fast this storm formed and died out. Got to love summer time pop corn storms but sometimes, they get out of hand.
***Special Thanks to Dave and Buffy Dyess for the photos***
Tuesday night’s storms across East Texas provided much needed rain to many but also brought with them a round of severe weather. Numerous reports of wind damage accompanied these storms as they developed along the I-30 corridor and moved south into the Tyler Longview area. There were even a few reports of hail up to the size of quarters in Upshur County and yours truly experienced penny size hail along Cumberland Road in Tyler.
The first photo below was taken off of Hwy 155 north of Big Sandy looking towards Gilmer. Lots of low hanging clouds giving an ominous appearance to the approaching storm.
The next photo taken was taken in the same spot but looking more to the east than northeast, under the updraft base. Weak rotation was seen but nothing to signal the possibility of a tornado developing.
As the storm continued south it continued to strengthen producing numerous cloud-to-ground lightning strikes and very strong winds. We were continuously buffeted by winds between 50 and 60 mph. Limbs were being snapped off and a few trees were knocked down along Hwy 80 as we raced east from Big Sandy to Gladewater. Below are a few photos sent to me from Mack and Jeanette Rose of Gilmer.
Once in Gladewater we took Hwy 271 southwest towards Tyler. Just south of Interstate 20 we saw a feature that really caught our eye. There appeared to be a tornado on the leading edge of the storm but after watching it for a minute it was easy to see there was no rotation and this feature was what we call scud, or scattered cumulus under deck. Many times this feature will take on the shape of a funnel or tornado. Below is a shot of this feather as it moved north of Interstate 20.
The storm we had been chasing began to weaken as we moved into Smith County but another storm along the Smith Wood County line began to strengthen. It is this storm that would produce the widespread damage and power outages across South Tyler. Below are a couple of radar animations. One, of the storm as it moved through the Tyler area, and the other is a volumetric scan where you can see the collapse of one storm which helped develop the Tyler storm. Then you can see the Tyler storm collapse which could have caused even more damage in the form of a microburst.
Now let’s take a look at the velocity data from Tuesday night’s storms, or speed and direction of the wind flow in the storms. In these photos the green colors are winds blowing towards the radar and the red colors are winds blowing away. The brighter the color, the stronger the wind. Another important fact to understand is these images are sampled in the storm around 13,000’ above the ground, so we don’t know exactly what was occurring at the surface. In the 1st photo we see red colors over Tyler indicating winds blowing away from the radar site indicating inflow to the developing storm along the I-20 corridor. Also you notice a large area of green east of New Chapel Hill indicating winds blowing towards the radar from outflow of a weakening storm over northwest Rusk County.
Over the next two frames, it looks as though this westward moving outflow boundary may have induced rotation in the Tyler storm as it continued to move south-southwest. The second of the two frames shows a tight couplet forming over southern Tyler near the intersection of Cumberland and Broadway. I was at this intersection and witnessed an abrupt change in the winds from the north to the south to around 60 mph. So there could have been rain wrapped rotation moving through south Tyler.
Over the next 15 minutes from this point the storm rapidly died down and can be seen with much weaker wind speed in the last velocity frame.
So was there a tornado in South Tyler Tuesday Night? Well, radar data hints that there was rotation in the storm 13,000’ above the surface which means there was a possibility this rotation reached the ground. I will tell you that all the damage I was able to see the next day indicated the most likely scenario was straight-line winds. I saw very little evidence of swirling wind from damage. However, radar data and the abrupt change in wind speed and direction makes me think there could have been a weak tornado moving through South Tyler. Officially tough this one will go down as a severe thunderstorm with straight-line wind damage.
A very unusual weather pattern is shaping up across East Texas for this late July afternoon. It is almost unheard of to get a strong jet stream to move into the southern plains this late in the season but, that is what is about to happen. So what does all this mean? It means there is a chance of severe weather across East Texas including tornadoes later on this afternoon.
The line of storms from this morning has used up a good bit of the energy in the atmosphere available for storms but clearing skies behind this line is allowing the sun to recharge the atmosphere. A cold front in Southern Oklahoma will sag south this afternoon into the northern counties of East Texas acting as a firing mechanism for additional storms. The amount of available energy for storms along the Red River Valley is already ample for severe storm development. In a normal late July weather pattern, any severe storm that develops would be what we call a pulse storm, meaning they quickly pulse up to severe limits and die out almost as fast. Thanks to a stronger upper level jet stream today, the storm’s core will be pushed away from the updraft allowing it to live longer. Thanks to an area of low pressure at the surface to our northeast, we have southwesterly winds at the surface. These winds quickly change direction as you increase in height throughout the atmosphere giving use enough wind shear for supercell thunderstorms, which we mainly find in East Texas during the Spring months. With supercells, the threat for strong gusty winds, large hail, and even isolated tornadoes will be possible. Stay tuned to your East Texas News Leader throughout the day for the latest.
A few severe thunderstorms developed yesterday afternoon so I decided to head out and see what I could find. My first stop was the Marina at the Villages on Lake Palestine to get a great view of a developing storm which would become severe and produce numerous hail reports, at times to the size of golfballs near Frankston. I continued to watch this storm intensify and decided to see what it had to offer. So I left the Marina and crossed Lake Palestine on hwy 155. As I passed through Coffee City Small Hail began to mix in with very heavy rain. As the storm continued to intensify the hail became larger, around 0.5” in diameter. As I entered the small town of Berryville, hail reached penny size so I pulled off the road so I could make a quick call to report the severe weather. Shortly after the hail reached quarter size, the largest I would see this day. I was concerned for my windshield but I came through the storm without a crack. A couple of miles down hwy 155 the hail reached golfball size in Frankston so I am glad I stopped when I did, doubt the windshield would have survived. Below are a few pictures of yesterday's storms.
A heat advisory has been issued for most of East Texas this afternoon and evening until 7 PM. Actual air temperatures combined with the relative humidity will make it feel more like 105 to 109 degrees this afternoon. Below is a heat index chart you can use to combine the air temperature where you live with your relative humidity. Remember, once the heat index reaches 105 degrees, it is dangerous to be outdoors. Your body has to work overtime to cool and you can become dehydrated rapidly. If you start to feel dizzy our nauseous, you are starting to feel the first signs of heat exhaustion. This could lead to heat stroke and even death so please take precautions this afternoon if you are outdoors. Don’t forget about your pets as well. Make sure they have plenty of water and an area to stay cool. And never leave your child or pet in a parked car. Temperatures inside your vehicle can reach 150 degrees within a few minutes.
There is also a chance of a few isolated thunderstorms developing this afternoon. An outflow boundary, or mini cold front, from yesterday’s storms to our north, will move across East Texas this afternoon. This will act as a focusing mechanism for thunderstorm development this afternoon. Now there will only be a few storms that develop and most will remain dry this afternoon. However, with the available heat energy, a few of these storms could be strong. The main threat today would be from strong gusty winds and cloud to ground lightning. Areas in and around these storms will see a rapid drop in the temperatures so hopefully everyone will get some relief, but right now it looks to be only a few folks that see natures air conditioning.
We had a pretty successful chase Tuesday evening as we left Tyler around 5:00PM and entered the Arlington area around 7:30PM. As we approached the Dallas Forth Worth Metroplex we noticed a rapidly developing thunderstorm to our west. I grabbed the laptop and started up the radar and saw this storm was very severe, showing signs of up to 3” diameter hail. (2” diameter hail was confirmed later) This storm was still over 100 miles to our west and we were going to have to enter Dallas during rush hour traffic. Not wanting to miss the opportunity to witness this large storm we drove through Dallas and ended up in Arlington a few miles in front of the storm. The large display of mammatus clouds were taken just east of Downtown Dallas and the rotating high based wall cloud was over Arlington. With the large temperature dewpoint spread, this thunderstorm had a very high cloud base (0Z RUC analysis showed LCL, lifted condensation level, at 2200 meters) so the tornado threat was very small. Another aspect going against the tornado production of this storm was the outflow was well east of the rotation under cutting the updraft to the storm. So in my mind this was a win win situation with a very photogenic storm that was not able to produce a tornado in a densely populated area. I hope you enjoy the photos.
***Update*** The surface low in question late this morning has become absorbed by the upper level low pressure over west central Florida. Our main focus will be this upper level low as it moves out into the central Gulf of Mexico. It still appears the chances of this system developing into a Tropical Storm are slim but we will continue to watch this system closely.
The official start to the Atlantic Hurricane season does not start until June 1st however, things are getting a bit interesting off the East Coast of Florida. A surface low is trying to get its act together in the Bahamas today and will drift west northwest over the next couple of days. Now it is a little early to see tropical development but it is not unheard of the have a system develop this early in the year. We have seen years where tropical storms and even hurricanes form in May. In fact in 1951 Hurricane Able developed on May 15th and reached category 3 status; the earliest storm to do so. Now the perfect conditions for tropical development would include warm sea surface temperatures along with light atmosphere winds. Sea Surface temperatures along the projected path of this developing system are marginal, in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. Normally we would like to see sea surface temperatures in the low 80s for tropical development. Also, the close proximity of the surface low to an upper level low pressure over west central Florida is causing atmospheric winds to be a little stronger than usual meaning this developing system will undergo some wind shear. So even though there is a lot going against this developing system we will continue to monitor it closely. If this system can develop and reaches tropical storm strength it would be named Ana. Below is a chart showing the projected paths different tropical forecast models are projecting. If this system takes a more southerly track, the chances of it developing will increase greatly as sea surface temperatures in the central Gulf are above 80 degrees. Also, if the surface low fails to develop, there is a chance the upper level low over Florida could develop into a surface low over the central Gulf, much like Hurricane Able did in 1951. So we could see an early start to the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
It has been a couple of busy weeks in the weather department tracking storms however, I did get some time to break away from East Texas and do some chasing in the Texas Panhandle and far northwestern Oklahoma. The time line for my chase was small, only one day, and the outlook for severe weather was promising. So it was all or nothing. We left early Saturday morning, the 25th of April, and headed northwest to Shamrock Texas, a small town on I-40 in the Eastern Panhandle. Here we met up with many other chasers how were in for a two day chase opportunity as an upper level disturbance moved out of the Rockies into the Great Plains.
Once we reached our targeted location, we waited for the signs of thunderstorm development, towering cumulus clouds to the west. Finally around 4:30, the first signs of thunderstorm development occurred. It was this storm that would tease and tempt us for the three ours across the rolling plains of the Eastern Panhandle and Northwestern Oklahoma throughout the evening hours.
This storm quickly developed into a supercell storm producing large hail and strong gusty winds. The storm started to reach severe levels near Mobeetie, TX where it was showing classic signs of a supercell structure. In the image of the storm you can notice a cloud lowering, where warm air is being ingested into the storm. This would later form into to a rotating wall cloud which produced a weak, short lived tornado outside Mobeetie.
Here you can see the Rear Flank Downdraft (RFD) punching into the back of the storm, helping to promote rotation under the updraft. It was shortly after this picture when the weak, short lived tornado touched down and moved into a field of cattle, scarring the you know what out of them. Unfortunately form my position, I could not see the rotation on the ground.
The storm also produced some large hail. These stones, about the size of golf balls, where found in Briscoe, TX where we did measure a few stones to 2.5” in diameter, or about the size of a tennis ball.
The storm continued to intensify as we drove east to Alison, TX show a bell shape lowering with rotation. It is at this time we really began to believe this storm would produce a significant tornado. As we crossed east into far northwestern Oklahoma, the wall cloud began to rotate significantly and produce multiple funnels. At one point we almost looked as though this storm would produce twin tornadoes that could lead to a strong, multi vortex tornado.
Over the next two hours this storm showed signs of strong rotation and teased us with the threat of tornadoes but, in the end, it would be a gusty wind and large hail producer. As the sunset we finally turned south to head home.
On the way we passed under a sever hail producing storm. Noticing the storm was producing large hail we decided to find a gas station overhang and ride the storm out, along with many other cars. In the next video you can see the hail as it falls and grows to the size of quarters.
This storm could never make up its mind. As the storm weakened we drove back on the interstate towards Oklahoma City. The storm suddenly intensified again and started dropping up to ping pong ball size hail, very loud while driving. So we looked for another gas station overhang and waited this storm out. As the storm moved north of the interstate we saw a great opportunity for some night lightning shots. The only problem was the strong southerly inflow feeding into this storm along with the nocturnal low level jet beginning to form. I have never witnessed clear skies overhead with 40 to 50 mph winds feeding into a storm over twenty miles away. I tried to set the shutter speed on my camera at 20 seconds to get an amazing backlit structure shot but, the winds were too much form my tripod. The photos turned out very blurry thanks to the camera movement. The two photos below were shot leaving the shutter speed at 8 seconds.
Finally I would like to give a special shout out to my new storm chasing companions and friends Paul and Maria Lachowsky. They drove me all over the rolling plains in pursuit of severe weather that Saturday. They are almost as much of a “Weather Geek” as I am and with a little coaching, I think I can get them to my level.
Today we will be watching StormTracker Live Doppler Network very closely as we a conditional threat of severe weather. What does that mean? Moisture is moving back across East Texas today on strong southerly winds, gusting as high as 30 mph at times. This will also help boost our temperatures this afternoon to around 80 degrees again today. Later this afternoon an area of low pressure will move across Oklahoma dragging a dryline, or trough of low pressure separating moist tropical air from warm dry air, into East Texas. It is along this dryline that a few isolated thunderstorms could develop. There will also be a layer of very warm air just above the surface this afternoon acting like a lid on thunderstorms development. As the warm air rises from the surface, it will hit this layer and be forced back towards the surface making thunderstorm development tough. The atmosphere is set up so that any storm that can develop could rapidly become severe with the main threat being large hail and strong winds. So where is the main threat of severe weather today and when can we expect it to occur. The atmosphere it most conducive for severe weather across our northeastern counties from Mount Pleasant to Longview to Carthage. It is in this area where thunderstorms will have the best chance of sustaining updrafts leading to large hail and strong gusty winds. However, all areas of East Texas will see large amounts of energy and instability so any storm that can develop could likely be severe. So everyone needs to be on guard during the afternoon hours. The most likely timeline for thunderstorm development is between 4 and 10 PM. You can track storms yourself on our web site on the weather page at KLTV.com and click on the interactive radar link. So for most, partly cloudy and breezy conditions will prevail. But for those who are unfortunate enough to be in an area where a storm can develop, things could get a bit rough. Stay tuned to KLTV and KLTV.com for the latest.
The calendar my say April but the forecast is going to be more like late January or early February for the next 24 hours. Temperatures with a brisk northwest wind will struggle to reach the upper 50s later this afternoon with mostly sunny skies. Tonight the winds will diminish allowing temperatures to drop across East Texas. Record low temperatures for tomorrow are 34°F for Tyler, 32°F for Longview, and 31°F for Lufkin. It looks as though these record lows are in jeopardy and will fall as temperatures will bottom out into the upper 20s and low 30s across East Texas as we wake up Tuesday morning. The all time record lows for April are 27°F in Tyler, 20°F in Longview, and 30°F in Lufkin. I think most of the all time record lows are safe however the 30°F for Lufkin could be tied or broken tomorrow morning. The cold blast will not last long as we see temperatures reach near normal readings by the middle part of this week. Remember to protect those sensitive plants you may have outside and don’t forget about your pets. Temperatures could be below freezing for a period of 4 to 6 hours in our normally cooler locations over night. Because of this a freeze warning has been issued for most of East Texas from Midnight tonight until 9AM tomorrow.
