Strong to severe storms are likely to develop across East Texas this afternoon and evening bringing the threat of large hail, strong gusty winds, and even an isolated tornado or two. A dryline, a front separating moist tropical air from dry continental air, is slowly moving east as of late this morning. Based on radar trends the dryline should be moving into our western counties from Greenville down to Palestine around 4PM. Out ahead of this line a few showers and storms have developed on the tail end of an upper air disturbance moving to our north. These showers should diminish in intensity over the next couple of hours. An area of sinking air on the right front side of a jet streak is currently moving into the area.
This could allow for addition heating this afternoon. By late this afternoon, East Texas will be in what we call the right rear our right entrance region of this jet streak. This will aid in lifting to increase the storms’ strength this evening. It still looks as though the greatest threat will be strong gusty winds and hail however, any additional surface heating will increase our chance of tornadoes. Current visible satellite image shows clearing skies over much of East Texas. This could allow temperatures to reach near 80 degrees again today and this will increase the instability needed for severe thunderstorm growth.
It still appears the best timing for these storms will be from 3PM in our western counties, 6PM in the Tyler area and 10 PM in our Eastern counties.