A strong storm system will develop today across central Texas bringing a good chance of showers and thunderstorms today. Some of the storms could produce small hail thanks to the cold mid level temperatures today. The farther south you move today, the better chance of seeing a strong storm or two. A warm front will move into the extreme southern counties of East Texas today, from Crockett to Lufkin. Along and south of this line I can’t rule out an isolated severe storm however, most of the severe weather should remain well to our south.
Later this afternoon and into this evening, a strong cold front will usher in much colder air. Right now it appears most of the moisture will be out of the area as the cold air moves in however, there is a chance a few snow flurries could develop tonight mainly from I-20 north. This will set the stage for a possible winter storm starting as early as Wednesday night through Friday morning.
An area of low pressure will begin to develop across southwest Texas Wednesday afternoon. Right now it appears this low will track to the east remaining well to the south of East Texas. This will give most of East Texas a chance at seeing some snow develop. As moisture moves over the cold dome of air at the surface, light rain and sleet should develop across the area towards Late Wednesday night. This will help cool the atmospheric column allowing snow to reach the surface by Thursday morning. Right now forecast models are showing the potential of a prolonged light to moderate snow event. The meteogram below shows a detailed forecast with timeline of what could happen if the low pressure remains on its forecast track (remember, the timeline starts to the right and then moves left).
You can clearly see there is nearly a 36 hour period of snow (forecast is for Tyler). This could lead to a significant snowfall for parts of East Texas if this verifies. The latest accumulated snowfall forecast puts a swath of three to five inches of snow across parts of East Texas (See Below).
As with all winter weather forecast here in East Texas, a lot could and probably will change before this system develops. If the low pressure tracks farther north, then most of East Texas will see rain. A little farther south and much of East Texas will see snow. I will say this however. This system has been advertised for many days now and continues to show a significant threat of winter weather across parts of East Texas. Usually as we approach a winter weather event, forecast models trend farther north and warmer with systems. This system has trended colder and farther south. Stay tuned as we fine tune the forecast as more details become available.