A strong storm system across the High Plains today will drag a cold front into East Texas providing a chance of rain and thunderstorms today and tonight, some of which could be strong to severe. The severe storms we saw across East Texas last night have moved out of the area and this morning we are left with low clouds fog and drizzle. With a few breaks in the low clouds later this morning, peaks of sunshine will help warm us into the lower to middle 70s. This will provide the energy needed for thunderstorms to develop across the area this afternoon into the evening hours. All of East Texas is under a slight risk of severe storms this afternoon with the main threat being gusty winds. If we can see enough sun to raise temperatures in to the middle 70s area wide, then there would be enough energy in the atmosphere for a few hail storms as well.
As for the tornado threat, right now it looks pretty small across East Texas. It looks as though a broken line of storms could develop to our west this afternoon. These storms will move into the area during the late afternoon and evening hours. The overall low level shear across East Texas at this time is not that impressive but if any storm is able to remain isolated, it could tap into what shear is available and produce an isolated tornado. The greatest tornado threat today looks to remain to our northwest near the Wichita Falls area where low level shear will be much greater this afternoon.
A second line of thunderstorms looks to develop this evening along the cold front that will be moving into the area. These storms could also produce strong gusty winds and small hail as they move through late tonight into the early morning hours on Saturday. By Noon Saturday the front and its line of storms should be east of the area allowing for drier and slightly cooler air to move in. By the end of this event much of East Texas could receive another inch of much needed rainfall.