Wednesday, February 23, 2011
Strong to Severe Storms Tomorrow
A strong storm system will be moving into East Texas during the day tomorrow bringing a chance of severe thunderstorms to parts of the area. Right now it looks as though an area of low pressure will develop across northwest Texas and move into eastern Oklahoma during the afternoon. As this low moves of to the northeast a cold front will move through East Texas during the late afternoon and evening hours. This will bring the front through during the peak heating of the day giving the area more energy to fuel these storms. Most of East Texas is under a slight risk for severe storms tomorrow.
With the low pressure expected to be in eastern Oklahoma when the front moves through the area, our winds will be out of the southwest around 15 to 20 miles per hour during the day. This southwest wind will help to limit the threat of tornadoes tomorrow keeping the amount of spin available in the atmosphere much less than if the surface winds were out of the southeast.
Winds above the surface will also be out of the southwest but much faster, around 80 mph. Any thunderstorm that develops could tap into these winds bringing them down to the surface. So the threat of strong gusty winds appears to be the main threat at this time. The mid and upper levels of the atmosphere area still fairly cold meaning there will also be a threat of large hail from any storm that can develop.
This is still a developing situation and a lot could change between now and tomorrow afternoon. If the area of low pressure forecast to develop moves farther south, then our surface winds would become more favorable for tornado development. All of East Texas north of a Palestine to Nacogdoches to Center line is under a slight risk of severe storms tomorrow. Please stay tuned for the latest on this developing storm system