Wednesday, December 16, 2009
A Sneak Peek at the Christmas Forecast
Every year around this time most everyone I meet and talk with ask me one question. Will we have a white Christmas? Unfortunately for all the snow lovers here in East Texas, snowfall is a rare occurrence, even more so on Christmas Day. Judging strictly on climatology data, the odds of seeing a white Christmas here this year are very slim, less than 20%. So what will happen this year?
I want to stress that what you are reading is not a forecast but is a trend on what we might expect this Christmas. Right now it appears a cold front will sweep through East Texas on Wednesday the 23rd. The air mass behind this front will be of arctic origin so we can expect cold temperatures Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. As this front moves through, showers can be expected out ahead of this front on Wednesday. Now for the interesting aspect to this trend. The latest long range forecast models are developing an area of low pressure along this front. The current placement of this low pressure Wednesday would give parts of the Gulf Coast region a chance of severe weather.
As this low intensifies and moves northeast, cold air with moisture would wrap around giving much of East Texas a chance of snow flurries or light snow showers. Temperatures would be very cold behind this front so any snow that falls would have a chance of accumulating. The window of opportunity for snowfall would last through early Christmas Eve Morning.
For Christmas day, very cold air would be in place with morning low temperatures in the teens and highs struggling to reach the 30s. For those planning to travel to the Northeast, an all out blizzard could be expected with this system.
Again, what you have just read is not my official Christmas Forecast. Right now my official forecast would call for dry, cold conditions with lows in the 20s and highs in the 40s. But it is always fun to look at all the possibilities of what “could” happen around Christmas.
This trend will more than likely change many times between now and Christmas. Keep checking back as I will post updates on what you might expect this Christmas weather wise.