Wednesday, April 13, 2011

Tornado Outbreak Possible Tomorrow

The 12Z NAM has come more in line with the other models and is painting a scary picture tomorrow afternoon. Right now it appears the cap will remain in place for most of the afternoon allowing temperatures to warm into the 80s. The cap will weaken by the evening hours but still be strong enough to only produce isolated convection. This means any storm that develops will be able to tap into all the energy available and quickly become severe. Wind shear is forecast to be very strong so supercells are likely. These storms will be able to produce baseball size hail and tornadoes. Again there will only be a few storms that develop so most areas will not see severe weather. The best chance of seeing severe weather including isolated strong tornadoes would be from I-30 north.

Below is the forecast sounding for 7PM tomorrow in Paris,TX. There is plenty of cape on the sounding and the hodograph on the right shows a tremendous turning of wind with height. Moisture is fairly deep here as well. You combine all these ingredents and if a storm develops near Paris it would likely be a supercell with hail and tornadoes.

The next image shows the forcast sounding for the sime time in Tyler, TX. here to we see plenty of CAPE on the sounding along with a large clockwise turning of wind with height on the hodograph. The moisture here looks deep enough as well to fire convection. The cap is a little stronger here meaning the chance of a storm developign is lower than in the Paris area but if it can form, watch out. It would likely be severe with very large hail and tornadoes.

The final image shows the forecast sounding for the same time in Lufkin, TX. You can see the amount of CAPE is a little smaller. Also the wind shear is not as strong. But the main limiting factor for storm development is the lack of deep moisture and two inversions, caps, the air parcel would have to rise through. SO for Deep East Texas the chances of severe weather appear to be very small. Storms will more than likely not form.

With this looking like it might develop into a fairly significant tornado event, I will be heading out tomorrow after my Midday show to see what develops. Tagging along will be our newest StormTracker Meteorologist Brett Collar. Stay Tuned!

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