Thursday, July 22, 2010
A new tropical depression has formed southeast of Miami, FL and could become Bonnie as early as this evening. This system has been struggling to develop over the past couple of days due to an upper level low pressure just east of the surface low. This upper low has been shearing the western side of the circulation keeping it from developing faster. It looks as though this upper low will move off to the northwest but remain close enough to this depression to keep it from developing into a hurricane. The current forecast brings this system into the Texas Gulf Coast late Sunday early Monday as a tropical storm.
The forecast also brings this storm into East Texas providing a chance for cooler weather and the possibility of heavy rains but it must be noted that the average error past four days is over 200 miles. So a lot could and probably will change between now and Monday morning.