Thursday, October 1, 2009

Today's Severe Weather Threat

We have been discussing the possibility of severe weather today since the beginning of the week and it looks as though everything will come together to produce a widespread, gusty wind event. A strong cold front to our northwest will move into East Texas along the I-30 corridor this evening and sweep through all of East Texas by Friday Morning. The main threat with this line of storms will be gusty winds however, temperature decrease a good deal in the mid levels of the atmosphere so I can’t rule out large hail with this line of storms, especially along and north of I-20. All of East Texas has been outline for a slight risk for severe weather with the greatest chance across North East Texas. Right now it appears the line of storms should form along the I-30 corridor around 7PM, enter the I-20 corridor around 10PM, and the Lufkin Nacogdoches area around 1AM. By Sunrise tomorrow the front should be through all of East Texas and drier cooler air will move in.

We could also see a few isolated storms develop this afternoon out ahead of the squall line. If temperatures can reach the middle to upper 80s we will see enough surface based instability for robust thunderstorm updraft development. Enough wind shear will be present this afternoon for any storm to take on supercellular characteristics. A south southwesterly flow at the surface will minimize the tornado threat but we could see large hail and high winds with these storms as well. So until the front moves through your neighborhood, severe weather is a possibility.

No comments: