A developing storm system will bring a complex weather pattern to East Texas today. An area of low pressure will develop along a stalled front to our southwest. This will pull a warm front into our southern counties later this afternoon allowing scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop. South of this warm front temperatures could reach 70 degrees south of a Crockett to Hemphill line. Along and south of this line any storm that does develop could produce large hail and gusty winds.
North of this warm front across most of East Texas, temperatures will be well below normal with cloudy skies today. High temperatures will range from the middle 50s to near 60 degrees across the northern two thirds of East Texas. In this area showers and thunderstorms will develop later this afternoon above the cool air near the surface. Because these storms will develop from air above the surface, the tornado and high wind threat is very low. However, mid level temperatures are very cold allowing any storm that develops to produce hail. Most of the hail that develops today should be smaller than dime size but a few storms could produce hail larger than quarters. The farther south you go today the better the chance of seeing large hail.
The developing low pressure will move off to the northeast later this evening dragging a cold front through the area. This will bring drier air to the region tomorrow afternoon and continue to keep temperatures below normal. Another disturbance will swing through East Texas Wednesday night bringing a slight chance of showers. Most of East Texas should receive between a quarter to a half inch of rain over the next 36 hours. A few lucky spots could receive up to an inch of rain in heavier storms.
