As we ushered in the New Year fairly cold temperatures greeted us this morning. Some of our East Central locations dropped to near 20 degrees this morning. But, if the long term forecast models we use to peek into the future are right, 20 degrees could feel balmy by the middle of January. It appears the upper level wind pattern will become favorable for an arctic outbreak to invade the country during the second and third week of January as the jet stream will surge north into northern Alaska and then plunge south across the continental United States. This is the same upper air pattern that tapped very cold air from the Arctic bringing the coldest air in over ten years to East Texas last January.
Now a lot can change between now and then with this forecast being over 10 days out but, right now it looks as though two chunks of arctic air will invade the country; one around the 10th and the second around the 17th of January. The first air mass appears to be much below normal and if it does move into East Texas we would see lows in the teens and highs in the 30s. This is not quite as could as last January but it is well below normal.
The second chunk of arctic air is being advertised right now as some of the coldest air seen in years. If, and this is a big if, this does occur, this could very well be the coldest air mass parts of the country has seen this new Millennium. The current forecast surface temperatures for Monday morning the 17th place the 0 degree line south of I-20 meaning much of East Texas would be below zero.
This would smash records for that date which are in the lower and middle teens and would come close to setting all time record lows for January.
Now with that said, I seriously doubt we will see temperatures as cold as advertised. We typically see long range forecast models producing extremely cold air this far out. I will say I have not seen it advertised this cold before this far south. Before we hit the lower teens in most areas last January our long range forecast models were advertising temperatures dropping to near zero. So based on what happened last year it is logical to think temperatures between 8 and 12 degrees could occur with this outbreak.
Again, this all depends on the eventual placement of the jet stream. If the upper air pattern changes, the cold air could be forced farther east and miss our area of the country. Or it could remain locked in Canada. Only time will tell. But based on the information available to us right now, it does appear some very cold air will move into the area the second and third week of this month. Stay tuned!
At the same time this surface low is developing across the northern Gulf, and upper level low pressure will be moving into our northern counties. It is this upper level low that will provide enough cold air in the mid and upper levels for snow to develop. Right now it looks as though temperatures Sunday afternoon and evening will be in the middle 30s from I-20 north. Although this is above freezing, it is cold enough for snow to reach the surface. Based on the forecast intensity of the precipitation, it does appear some areas of East Texas could see accumulations of snow Sunday afternoon and evening. The best chance of seeing accumulating snow is over our northeastern counties, mainly along and north of a Sulphur Springs to Jefferson line. Here one to two inches of snow with locally heavier amounts could occur.
Arctic air is still scheduled to make its way into East Texas Next week. Right now it appears that a strong arctic front will move through the area late Monday or early Tuesday bringing the coldest temperatures of the New Year. Temperatures behind this front will more than likely remain in the 30s for highs next Wednesday and Thursday before winds begin to turn out of the southeast next Friday warming us back into the 50s. It also appears we will see a good deal of cloud cover during the middle part of next week which will actually help us out. 
Without the cloud cover we could easily drop into the lower teen next week during the night time hours. But thanks to the clouds, most areas will only drop into the lower to middle 20s, still cold but not quite as bad as we could be. We will also be watching a disturbance in the mid levels of the atmosphere on Wednesday. As with most arctic air masses, this one will be very dry. 
However, with this upper level energy a few snow flurries could be squeezed out across the area. As it looks right now no accumulation would occur thanks to the very dry air mass. 
This is typically a pattern that sends some of the coldest arctic outbreaks into the United States. This is the same pattern we saw last January that sent temperatures into the upper single digits and lower teen across East Texas. Right now it looks as though temperatures could be as low as 10 degrees in the area if what is forecast occurs.
As we ushered in the New Year fairly cold temperatures greeted us this morning. Some of our East Central locations dropped to near 20 degrees this morning. But, if the long term forecast models we use to peek into the future are right, 20 degrees could feel balmy by the middle of January. It appears the upper level wind pattern will become favorable for an arctic outbreak to invade the country during the second and third week of January as the jet stream will surge north into northern Alaska and then plunge south across the continental United States. This is the same upper air pattern that tapped very cold air from the Arctic bringing the coldest air in over ten years to East Texas last January. 