east texas skies

A Severe Storm or Two is Possible Today

2012-02-01T11:21:00.001-06:00

There is a conditional threat of severe across parts of East Texas this afternoon, mainly north of interstate 20. A few breaks in the low level clouds late this morning is already allowing surface temperatures to approach 70 degrees. At the same time colder air in the mid levels of the atmosphere are spreading across the northern counties of East Texas. This imbalance will cause air to rise in a few areas leading to an isolated thunderstorm or two. Any storm that develops this afternoon will have the potential to produce hail, possibly up to 2 inches in diameter. The upper air disturbance that is moving through the area will exit East Texas later this evening and our thunderstorm chances will diminish. Again this is a conditional threat meaning there is a good chance no storms will develop at all. But if they do, we will probably see a few large hail reports this afternoon.

Severe Weather Possible Friday

2012-01-31T09:27:00.008-06:00

The next few days will see a few disturbances rapidly moving across the area as the mild winter weather continues. The first fast moving disturbance will move through the area tomorrow near the Red River Valley providing enough lift for an isolated thunderstorm or two. With the surface temperatures being as warm as they are, there will be enough surface instability for a marginally severe storm with the main threat being small hail and gusty winds. With the surface winds remaining rather weak and a uniform shear profile tomorrow, the tornado threat at this time appears very low. Most areas look to remain dry as it only appears isolated convection but the next system heading our why for Friday looks much stronger.

Forecast models differ on the timing and position of the next system but all agree much of the area will receive rain. What is becoming interesting with this next system is the NAM forecast model, a higher resolution short range model, is starting to slow the system down while at the same time strengthening it. If what the NAM is predicting right now does come true, we could see a significant round of severe weather across parts of the area including tornadoes.

At the time of this writing the latest forecast time available for the NAM was 18Z Friday, or noon CST. At this time a strong, negatively tilted trough is forecast to be moving through West Texas. As this happens warm moist air from the Gulf will be forced north across the state of Texas adding to the amount of surface instability available for thunderstorm development. Winds at the surface will be out of the southeast around 15 to 20 miles an hour. At the same time the winds at 850mb, or about 5000 feet in the air, will be out of the south around 50 to 60 miles per hour. This will produce a large turning of wind with height in the lowest level of the atmosphere allowing for large storm relative helicity to be ingested by any thunderstorm that develops. This will help any storm that develops to be capable of producing a tornado.

The main limiting factor in severe weather development is the level of instability available for storms. Right now it is forecast to be fairly low. However, usually in strong negatively tilted troughs the amount of surface instability can be underestimated 84 hours out by the forecast model. The 700mb chart is showing very high relative humidity levels across the area indicating cloud cover.
There is an area of very dry 700mb air that will wrap around the storm system allowing for breaks in the clouds which will in turn heat the air mass adding to the low level instability.

Severe weather outbreaks are always a blend of perfect timing between all severe weather parameters. This system bears watching the next few days. The upper air pattern is fairly similar to the April 9th event in 2009 nine which produced numerous long lived tornadoes across the area. The upper air jet streak is forecast to punch just south of the area putting the Red River Valley and much of East Texas in the left exit region which gives added lift to air parcels. The entire area will also be in the area of diffluent wind flow which also adds to air parcel lifting.

So if the current trend continues, this meteorologist will be out roaming the plains looking for tornadoes Friday afternoon and evening.

Severe weather possible tomorrow

2012-01-24T10:24:00.008-06:00

The unusual wet patter for a La Nina year looks to continue as a strong storm system promises to bring heavy rain and thunderstorms to the area starting tonight. Rainfall could add up to more than 2 inches for many areas before this storm system finally exits the area late Thursday. In addition to heavy rain, there is a slight chance for severe thunderstorms tomorrow across parts of East Texas, mainly south of Interstate 20.

The way it looks right now an area of low pressure will develop tonight across extreme south Texas and begin to move northeast towards Shreveport by Thursday morning. This low pressure will pull in warm moist air from the Gulf, allowing for showers and thunderstorms to develop. Areas along and south of the low pressures track will be in what we call the “warm sector” of the storm system. It is in this area where we could see a few severe storms, especially from noon to 6PM tomorrow afternoon. Now we normally don’t expect to see severe weather during January but it is not unheard of. January 20th, 2010 was the last major severe weather event during the month of January in East Texas. Now the atmosphere will not be as volatile as we saw for that event but, the amount of energy and shear in the atmosphere is very similar to watch just occurred in the Southeast Sunday night. So for areas along and south of a Marshall to Longview to Tyler To Palestine line there is a threat of gusty winds and maybe an isolated tornado or two if an isolated thunderstorm can develop. The good news for East Texas is that as storms develop tomorrow they should quickly form into a squall line, limiting the tornado threat.

On the positive side, this system should bring heavy rain to the area. Now we cannot rule out a few local areas of flash flooding, but with 2 plus inches of rain falling over the area in a short period of time, lake levels should rise. The past few heavy rain events have occurred a little slower than what is expected with this system and over a drier ground. Soil moisture has increased with the rains of November and December so rapid run off should occur with heavier downpours causing our lake levels to rise. Stay with KLTV and KLTV.com for the latest. Any change in the track of this low pressure will cause a change in the threat area for severe weather.

Now earlier I stated there were similarities to the Sunday/Monday event with tomorrow’s storm system. But events were fairly what we usually reference to as a low instability high shear event. CAPE values in central Alabama early Monday morning were between 500 and 1000 J/kg and the forecast CAPE values here for tomorrow are around 500 J/kg, usually not what we would look for in a severe weather situation.

However the 0-3KM CAPE, or the amount of energy available closest to the surface, is forecast to be between 100 and 200 J/kg tomorrow afternoon. This is more than enough to produce healthy low level rising of air parcels, some we look for in tornado formation.
I this this low level energy that creates the stretching possibilities of any low level spin to help generate strong gusty winds along with tornadoes.
Another factor we look for in the development of tornadoes would be the low level helicity, or the amount of spin available for the thunderstorm to ingest. Values at or above 150 are usually enough to help with the development of tornadoes. Tomorrow’s forecast values are between 200 and 300.

Finally we look for the 0-1KM shear values. Anything over 20 knots is favorable for tornado development in severe weather situations. Tomorrow’s values are forecast to be between 30 and 40 knots, more than enough to help in tornadogenesis.The two major differences in tomorrow’s setup I see from Alabama’s tornado outbreak is the amount of forcing and the orientation of the shear vectors to the front. In Alabama the forcing was displaced farther to the north along with shear vectors which were more perpendicular to the front. This allows storms to separate and ingest all the available energy and spin. This lead to a couple of very strong supercells which produced at least two ling track tornadoes.
As seen in the first image, a very strong vorticity maximum will be moving into the area to provide a large amount of forcing. In addition the shear vectors will be parallel. Combining these two factors will allow for any storms that form to quickly form into a squall line. This should limit the overall tornado threat but increase the gusty wind threat.
So what we will be watching for is any isolated thunderstorm to develop ahead of the main line of storms. Any isolated storm could produce tornadoes but should be quickly ingested by the main line.The overall severe weather threat will depend on the eventual track of the developing low pressure. If this system moves farther north, all of East Texas will be under a threat of severe weather. A bit farther south and the severe weather threat will be pushed along the Gulf coast.

Maplesville Tornado

2012-01-23T10:29:00.003-06:00

Strong signs of rotation as the the storm moved into Maplesville, AL. Reports are there is major damage with this storm. We will know more later today but our thoughts and prayers are with our neighbors to our east.

Happy New Year

2012-01-03T14:39:00.000-06:00

My first attempt at doing star trails. It won't be my last.

Today's Severe Weather Threat

2011-11-21T10:00:00.005-06:00

A cold front is dividing the weather across East Texas today. Temperatures ahead of this front are already approaching 80 degrees while north of the front, many areas are in the lower and middle 50s. It is along and just ahead of this front where a severe storm or two may develop later this afternoon. North of the front we will see showers and storms develop as warm air is forced over the shallow cooler air at the surface. Any storms north of the front could produce large hail but with the lack of surfaced based instability, the wind and tornado threat is extremely low.

It is along and south of the front where the severe weather threat changes significantly to include the threat of tornadoes and gusty winds. The one factor missing to make this a significant severe weather event is enough lift out ahead of the front. The upper air disturbance this afternoon will be too far west to provide enough lift for wide spread convection but there will be a chance a storm or two could develop due to daytime heating.

If a storm can develop south of the front the environment the storm would encounter would be favorable not only for severe weather but tornadoes as well. MLCAPE approaches and surpasses in a few areas 1000 J/kg south of the front. This is more than enough energy to provide deep robust updrafts.

In addition to the MLCAPE being around 1000 J/kg, the 0-3 KM CAPE will approach 100 J/kg. This provides enough lift in the lowest layer of the atmosphere to stretch and tighten any surface vorticity which could allow for tornadogenesis.

In addition the effective shear in the warm sector south of the front approaches 60 knots. This shear will cause any robust updraft to rotate producing supercell thunderstorms. In addition to the effective shear being adequate for severe storms, the effective storm relative helicity is over 200 providing more than enough low level spin that when combined with the low level CAPE shown early could help with tornadogenesis.

So all the parameters are there for severe thunderstorms including tornadoes today but with the lack of real forcing, we will have to wait and see if a storm can develop. The Storm Prediction Center has areas immediately along the forecast position of the front under a 5% chance of seeing a tornado(now is only 2% based on the question will a storm develop). Again as the southerly flow hits the front and is forced upward, showers and storms will develop north of the front. There is enough elevated CAPE along with shear to cause rotating or supercell thunderstorms to form. However with these storm’s updrafts not routed in the surface layer of the atmosphere, tornadoes will not be a threat.

Jupiter and its Moons last night

2011-11-11T10:43:00.002-06:00

Strong to severe storms possible tomorrow

2011-11-07T09:14:00.002-06:00

A strong storm system is developing to our west today and this system promises to bring some much need rain along with the threat of strong storms to East Texas. Rainfall from this system looks to be around an inch for most of East Texas as we see plenty of moisture available for numerous showers and storm.

Today as you step outside you will notice a warm and kind of muggy atmosphere. Strong southerly winds have brought a lot of Gulf moisture to the area keeping temperatures very warm at night and allowing for afternoon highs to reach the upper 70s to near 80 degrees for many areas. This moisture will set the stage for a significant severe weather outbreak this afternoon to our west. Areas to the northwest of Dallas and Fort Worth will see scattered severe storms producing very large hail and tornadoes this afternoon. If you had any travel plans to these areas today you may want to postpone them until tomorrow when the large hail threat will be much lower.

The scattered severe storms this afternoon will form into a line of storms as a fast moving cold front moves towards the area. This will cause the storms to race east and reach our area tomorrow around midday in our western counties and during the afternoon hours across our eastern counties. This line of storms could produce some small hail and gusty winds but the good news is they will bring heavy rain. Much of the area should receive around an inch of rain with a few spots receiving over an inch and a half of rain with this line of storms. The image below shows much of East Texas receiving between 0.75” and 1.50” of rain with this line of storms tomorrow.

By Tuesday evening drier air will be moving in behind a Pacific cool front. Temperatures on Wednesday Morning will drop into the 40s as the dry air cools overnight. On Wednesday another front will move through the area bringing cooler Canadian air into East Texas. This will allow morning lows to drop down into the 30s By Friday with a few spots getting close to freezing. The roller coaster ride of temperatures we normally see in November will continue.

Wide Spread Frost Possible Tonight

2011-11-03T09:59:00.000-05:00

A strong cold front moved through East Texas last night and you can tell, much colder air has moved in. The winds today will still be quite gusty out of the northwest around 20 to 25 miles per hour through the early afternoon hours. As the Canadian high pressure mov0se over East Texas late this afternoon, our winds will die down setting the stage for a very cold evening. By 10PM winds will more than likely be below 5 miles per hour in most areas with the exception being our higher ridge tops across East Texas. In the areas where the winds are below 5 miles per hour, temperatures will rapidly drop. At the same time dew point temperatures, or the temperature at which dew forms on objects, will be well below freezing, in the lower 20s in most areas. This will allow for any moisture that forms on outdoor objects to quickly freeze causing frost to develop. So if the winds do die down early enough most of East Texas will wake up to a frosty start on our Friday. If the winds do not die down below 5 miles per hour, wide spread frost will not form but I would still bring in any tender vegetation you may have.

With much of East Texas expecting frost tonight, some parts of East Texas could experience freezing temperatures towards morning. Again this all depends on the wind speed. With light winds temperatures are allowed to drop very rapidly and can approach the dewpoint. I would not be surprised if a few of our normally cooler locations in the morning dropped to near 30 degrees, possibly even the upper 20s. Freeze warnings have been posted for our northwestern counties but if it looks like the winds will die down early enough, those warnings may be extended farther south and east.

The Orionids Meteor Shower to Peak Tonight, Tomorrow Morning

2011-10-21T10:12:00.001-05:00

The remains of Haley’s Comet will intercept the Earth’s orbit late tonight early tomorrow morning producing a meteor shower as these small particles burn up in the Earth’s atmosphere. The peak time for this event will be after midnight and by 2:00AM up to 20 meteors per hour can be expected. Although this is not as active as some meteor showers, Orionids have been known to streak far across the sky looking like balls of fire as they race along the horizon.
So where do you need to look to see this event? In the southeastern sky you will be able to find the constellation giving Orionids their name, the Orion.

It is from this general direction the meteors should fly across the sky. There may be a few clouds tonight but overall, the viewing conditions appear to be fairly good across East Texas tonight into tomorrow morning.

Scattered Frost Possible Tonight

2011-10-19T10:35:00.001-05:00

A cold Canadian high pressure will move into East Texas this evening. As this occurs very dry air will be in place along with clear skies. With the high pressure moving over East Texas this will allow for our winds to die down to near calm by tomorrow morning. This will provide the perfect conditions for evaporational cooling which will allow for a few places to get downright cold this evening.

A lake wind advisory continues through this afternoon as we will see wind gusts to 30mph. But as we approach sunset the winds will significantly die down allowing for temperatures to cool off rapidly. Dew points (the temperature at which dew forms) this evening will be well below freezing setting the stage for the formation of patchy frost. The following image shows dewpoints ranging from 20 degrees along the I-30 corridor to the middle 20s in our southern counties. This will allow for areas with calm winds to drop well into the 30s. As dew forms, it will be forming on objects whose surface temperatures are below freezing. This will cause patchy frost to form.

Now we are not expecting wide spread frost this evening as most places will remain right around the 38 to 40 degree mark. But in our normally cooler locations temperatures could drop below 38 degrees making the formation of frost more likely. If winds die off soon enough, parts of our northeastern counties could get close to freezing. This is not expected to be a killing frost or freeze but if you have any tender vegetation, you may want to bring them inside.

Tyler could hit 82 today, I we’re not talking about the temperature

2011-09-29T09:51:00.001-05:00

As we head through the end of September, temperatures this afternoon will heat up once again. In a summer that just doesn’t want to end, it looks as though the century mark could be reached again in Tyler for the 82nd time this year. Now let’s put that number in perspective. Over the past ten years combined Tyler has reached 100 degrees 83 times. Over the past 30 years Tyler usually sees 100 degrees 7 times. The good news is the latest recorded 100 temperature occurred in Longview on October 3rd 1953. We are rapidly approaching that date so the end should be near, but this year nothing would surprise me.
Now relief is on the way as a strong cold front heads through the Plains States this afternoon. Out ahead of this front the air mass if very dry so clouds and showers will be hard to come by. Another problem today is out ahead of these fast moving fronts, the air is forced to compress. When this happens the air mass warms and with a lack of clouds, many areas should approach if not surpass 100 degrees this afternoon. But once the front moves through, it will feel like fall.
Temperatures in the northern Plains this morning were in the 30s and 40s with the coldest location I could find being Cut Bank, MT with 26 degrees. Now we will not see temperatures this cold but as this air mass moves south, we have a noticeable difference in our morning and afternoon temperatures. Many areas Sunday morning could be in the upper 40s and only warm into the upper 70s to near 80 degrees during the afternoon. The only thing that would make this forecast better would be the chance of rain which appears absent for the next few days.
So will today be the last time we see temperatures approach 100 degrees this year? There are signs the overall weather pattern is about to change starting next week. The ridge of high pressure that has kept us dry and hot looks to be replaced by a significant trough of low pressure. If this occurs then our rain chances will increase towards the second weekend of October which in turn would keep temperatures lower. This pattern looks to hang around through the middle of October which according to the record books is too late for 100 degree temperatures. But as I stated earlier, this year nothing would surprise me.

Why is it so smokey?

2011-09-06T08:59:00.002-05:00

I have been getting lots of questions on fires this morning because of the extreme amount of smoke in the area. Many people are worried if there is a fire near them and after the past couple of days, who can blame them? East Texas awoke to a tremendous amount of smoke this morning even though there was not an increase in fires. So how did this happen?

As the sun sets in a cool air mass, the earth cools rapidly causing ground temperatures to be much cooler than temperatures just above the surface. This is known as a temperature inversion. Basically the near ground atmosphere separates from the remainder of the atmosphere. We call this atmospheric decoupling. This also allows for the surface winds to diminish greatly. With the temperature at the surface much cooler than the temperature 500 or so feet above the surface, the smoke becomes trapped in the lowest layer of the atmosphere. As the smoke rises, it hits the temperature inversion and can go no higher so it spreads out across the entire area.

When we look at the sounding data for Tyler, or the temperature profile, the red line shows the air temperature as you go up in the atmosphere. Notice at 7AM this morning there was a strong inversion were the temperature decreases rapidly in the lowest 500 feet of elevation. By noon you can see the inversion in the lowest 500 feet is now gone and this allows for the smoke to mix out. Now there is another temperature inversion around 6000 feet in the atmosphere so the smoke can’t completely clear out but at least it will be a little easier to breath. Depending on what happens with the fires today, we could see a repeat performance of the smoke tomorrow morning.

Be sure to fill up before Thursday

2011-08-30T11:11:00.001-05:00

Before Irene hit the Eastern Seaboard the price of gas increased just a bit in the fear that the refineries in the Northeast would be damaged by the storm. Now that Irene passed through the area with little affect on the refineries, one would expect the price of gas to drop. However, it looks as though a little surprise could form in the Gulf of Mexico that would cause the refineries in Texas and Louisiana to be in danger. Lee could form later this week.

We have been advertising that the strong ridge of high pressure that has been in control of our weather for most of the summer would split by Thursday allowing an upper air trough to take shape across Texas. This would allow for a tremendous amount of Gulf Moisture to move into the area cooling temperatures and giving us a good chance of rain. It now appears a tropical low will develop in the Gulf on Thursday and depending on how fast it develops, we could see Lee before the Holiday Weekend.

All of the models we use to generate our forecasts have now picked up on the fact that a tropical system will develop in the Gulf. There is however a very large spread in the strength and time of this system. We are also watching a cold front that will be moving towards the Red River on Sunday which could play a huge roll in where this system eventually ends up. If the new short range high resolution model is correct, we could be looking at a strong category 1 hurricane near the Sabine Pass on Friday evening. If this does occur we should see plenty of rain move across East Texas before the cool front arrives on Sunday pushing this system to our south and west. That is the good news. The bad news is the winds would be very strong and we could see wide spread power outages.

Again the above scenario is the worst case scenario now. A lot could happen between now and then that stops this system from developing or keeps it away from East Texas. One thing is for sure though. Once the oil companies get wind of this system developing, the price of gas will go up. All the oil companies have meteorologists on staff so it won’t be long until they are hearing this worst case scenario I mentioned. So the sooner you can fill up, the better.

When Will It End?

2011-08-26T08:43:00.002-05:00

Yesterday another mile stone was reached in Tyler as it was the 70th day Tyler reached or surpassed 100 degrees. Yes, 70! To put that number in perspective, the old record for the most 100 degree plus days in Tyler was 47. So Tyler has surpassed the all time record of 100 degree days by 23 days or over three weeks. If our seven day forecast is correct, and I believe it is, Thursday will be day number 77 giving us a month of days above the previous all time record.

The situation is a little different for Longview record wise but it has still been hot. Yesterday was the 62nd day at or above 100 degrees; 2 days shy of the all time record of 64 days set in 1934. Again based on the seven day forecast this all time record will be broken as well.

So when will it end? Well looking at the medium and long range forecast models, there is a chance that Thursday of next week could be our last 100 degree day of the summer. The strong ridge of High pressure that has been dominating our weather for the past 90 days looks as though it will split placing an upper air trough across East Texas starting Wednesday of next week. If this happens it will allow much more Gulf moisture to move across the area and with daytime heating, we would see scattered afternoon storms. It looks as though this pattern could continue through much of the second week of September keeping afternoon storms in the forecast, giving us more soil moisture, allowing for cooler afternoon temperatures. So depending on exactly what happens; September 1st could be the last day we see 100 degrees for the summer of 2011.

But the way this summer has gone, I have to believe we would see at least a couple of days in September at or above 100 degrees. By this time period Tyler could be approaching the total number of 100 degrees day for the years 2001-2010 combined; 83! What we really need to happen is a huge shift in the Jet Stream binging the first real autumn like air mass. Last year this did not occur until the 26th of September when we saw a front move through knocking our highs down into the middle 70s and lows into the lower 50s. The earliest this has occurred in the past 5 years was on the 16th in 2008 after Ike moved through. Today’s long range forecast model shows this occurring on the 10th right now. It is a little early for this to happen but at least the trend is moving in the right direction. Surface temperatures are forecast to be in the middle 50s Saturday morning the 10th with highs in the 70s. Although this forecast is too far out to be very accurate, after this summer I think we all deserve an early arrival to fall.

Come on Don!

2011-07-27T09:24:00.002-05:00

Yesterday we brought to everyone’s attention there could be a tropical system developing near Cuba. The National Hurricane center had this area under a slight risk of developing but we mentioned the system looked fairly organized and was worth monitoring closely. This morning it is now looking likely this system will develop into a tropical depression later today and possibly Tropical Storm Don. The National Hurricane Center now has this area under a high likelihood of development and is sending an air force hurricane hunter to investigate. Once the plane reaches this system I have a good feeling it will be classified as a depression.

Now for the good news. It appears the timing of this system along with the eastward movement of our strong high pressure that has been baking us all summer, will allow for lots of tropical moisture to invade the area. So even if what could become Don moves to our south, the chances of seeing afternoon thunderstorms will increase greatly Friday and Saturday and should bring an end to the steak of 100 degree days.

It is not all good news however. If this system moves farther north that could put East Texas in the area we would need to monitor for weak tornadoes that occur with land falling tropical systems. Also, with the extremely dry ground, rapid run off could occur with very heavy downpours giving parts of East Texas a threat of flash flooding.

We will continue to monitor this system over the next few days. I for one could deal with a little severe weather if it means rain and an end to the extreme heat. One thing is for sure. If we do not get a decent amount of rain with this system, next week will be very hot with highs approaching 105 degrees again as our friendly high pressure ridge builds back in.

Could Don be out There?

2011-07-26T10:43:00.005-05:00

Tropical forecast models were hinting at a developing tropical system a couple of days ago. Some of the high resolution models were showing a strong tropical storm or hurricane by Friday morning. If this were to happen the storm’s name would be Don. Right now the models have backed off on this development but it will be interesting to watch. It seems as though this disturbance has become a little better organized the past 24 hours. This could be just what East Texas needs, a tropical system moving to our south but close enough to send in lots of tropical moisture increasing our chance of rain. If this system takes a more northerly track we could see locally heavy rain over the weekend.

If it moves farther south, East Texas would be mostly dry and very hot. Right now it appears the second scenario is more likely but we will continue to watch this developing system.

I'll Hold at 20 but................

2011-07-18T11:04:00.000-05:00

20 days. That is where Tyler stands right now on the record setting number of days at or above 100 degrees. This ties the record for any reporting station in Tyler reporting 100 degrees or more in a row. The previous record ended in August of 1998 when Tyler had a run 20 days. That same year Longview had 21 days in a row at or above 100 degrees. Right now Tyler and Longview are both holding with 20 and 18 days respectfully. However it looks as though the dealer may not be done and both cities could bust in respect to the 21 you want in Black Jack. What is the next card to be dealt? We will have to see. But there is a chance the dealer is holding a 7 which would give Tyler a 27 and Longview a 25, both big busts!

Crazy From The Heat Records

2011-07-12T09:08:00.003-05:00

Yesterday was another day with temperatures above 100°F making it the 14th straight day in Tyler and the 12th straight day in Longview. The only thing crazier than the heat in my opinion is trying to keep up with all the heat records for East Texas. Yesterday I stated that the longest stretch on record for Tyler was 16 days in 1980 and the longest stretch of days for Longview was 10 days in 2006. Well, that is not entirely true and it starts to get real confusing. So I will try to straighten up all the confusion today, remember I said try.

The problem with weather records here in East Texas is the “official” site has changed many times throughout the years and is actually pretty hard to find when doing research. The “official” weather observation site for Tyler has been at the Tyler Pounds Airport since May of 2000. In Longview the “official” site has been at the East Texas Regional Airport since February of 2001 but since the National Weather Service used to be stationed in Longview, there have been reports from the airport since the mid 70s.

There are also many other “unofficial” sites that have kept data over the past 100 years or so. One of those sites showed Tyler had a stretch of 16 days above 100 degrees in 1980 however; the “official” site the Weather Service uses shows only 12 straight days above 100 degrees. Confused yet? So am I.

Well, after a lot of research my friend from the Nation Weather Service in Shreveport Jason Hansford has given me an “official” record that they will be using for the longest stretch of 100 degree plus days for Tyler and Longview. The year was 1998 with Tyler going 20 days and Longview going 21 days at or above 100°F. But remember, these readings were from different locations than we use today. The 21 days for Longview actually occurred 11 miles to the southeast of Longview and not at the airport. The airport only recorded 12 days in a row that year.

So unless we see the triple digit heat linger into the first part of next week, the “official” records appear to be safe. However, since the ASOS (Automated Surface Observing System) has been commissioned in both Tyler and Longview, this stretch of 100°F plus days is the longest.

When Will It End?

2011-07-11T09:19:00.007-05:00

For much of East Texas June was the hottest June on record and July is starting off much the same way. If the forecast high temperatures are reached today across East Texas it will make the 14th straight day that Tyler as hit or surpassed 100°F. This is the second longest stretch of 100°F plus days on record. The longest on record is 16 days in 1980. Today would be the 12th straight day of 100°F heat in Longview, the longest stretch on record. So why has it been so hot?

Well, if you can think back to April when we first started to see the mercury hit the 90°F mark, we began to mention if we do not see a significant amount of rain we were in for a very hot summer. The reason for this is because of how dry our soil is here in East Texas. As the sun shines down on the Earth’s surface, much of its energy is used to evaporate soil moisture causing the ground to remain relatively cool. This year we have seen soil moisture extremely low across East Texas. When this happens all of the sun’s energy can be used to heat the ground which in turn heats the air. The hotter the soil temperature, the hotter the air will become. For the majority of East Texas the soil moisture is less than 5% of what it normally should be for this time of the year. On Saturday the 10th the soil moisture for much of East Texas was actually less than 1% of what we normally see. (The dark red shading across the southern 2/3rds of East Texas indicate less than 1% of normal soil moisture)

This is not good for the hopes of seeing cooler temperatures anytime soon. Even if we are able to see afternoon and evening thunderstorms develop, the amount of aerial coverage will not be enough to cause an increase in soil moisture to bring temperatures back to a normal level. East Texas’ climate this year is becoming more like what you would find across west Texas where dry soil leads to 100°F quite often. The only real hope we have of seeing a significant increase in soil moisture is if a tropical system moves into our area bringing widespread 3 to 5 inches of rain.

Hopefully this will happen. The Atlantic Hurricane seasonal forecast is above normal this year. Of course we do not need a tropical storm or hurricane to cause a significant amount of damage to the area. What we need is a tropical depression to move into the area and stay for a day or two providing widespread heavy rain. This would give us the average amount of soil moisture we usually see giving us average temperatures instead of well above temperatures. If we do not see this we may set all time record high temperatures across East Texas this summer. In Tyler we hit 105°F in June tying the all time record for the month. The all time record high for Tyler is 111°F and for Longview is 113°F. As many tell me, “This is summer in East Texas. It’s supposed to be hot!” Well not this hot. But don’t worry. We are only 91 days away from our average highs being in the upper 70s, and it can’t get here soon enough.

Another shot from the 5th

2011-07-08T06:06:00.003-05:00

Yes, the 5th of July. A few left over fireworks and a strong storm combine for a beautiful shot.

Bolt From The Blue

2011-07-06T07:01:00.003-05:00

Named a bolt from the blue or bolt out of the blue because the lightning jumps from the top of the storm out. Sometimes the bolt can hit up to 10 miles away from the storm.

Man and Mother Nature on the Fourth

2011-07-05T10:53:00.004-05:00

This was shot last night from my back yard. It was a 20 second exposure @ f/8 at on my Sigma 8-16mm UWA lens at 8mm cropped to show the lightning and fireworks together. This is on the overall left side of the image which is a little soft. Also, the gusty winds blowing the fireworks west add to the blur just a bit. Overall, I am happy with the shot.

Gilmer Micro-Burst in 3D

2011-07-01T09:38:00.007-05:00

Last evening's storms that popped across East Texas produced scattered high wind and hail reports as they drifted across the area. The Storm in Gilmer was fairly stationary as the updraft grew just to the north of town.

In the image below the storm is nearing its mature state. Notice the dark reddish purple core reaching nearly 30,000 feet into the atmosphere. It is at this time that the storm is developing its hail core and soon produce quarter size hail in Gilmer.

The next image below shows the storm at its mature stage. Notice how large the reddish purple color is and how high the light blue overshooting top is, reaching 55,000 feet in the atmosphere. The image below was taken at 6:24 PM about 10 minutes before it would unleash its severity.

In the next image notice the overshooting top has disappeared. This is the beginning of the collapse of this large storm. The time here is 6:29PM.

The next image shows the hail core is much smaller. This tells us the hail the storm was holding aloft is now reaching the ground. Shortly after this image quarter size hail was reported in Gilmer.

The next image shows the core is not only shorter, much much skinnier as well. Most of the hail at this point is falling or has fallen out of the storm. At this time the very strong downburst winds are hitting the ground as well.

The final image shows the storm in its decaying stage. The strong downburst has caused damage to parts of the downtown area of Gilmer. It has also cut off the updraft to the storm causing this storm to end but sending an outflow boundary south which will give birth to new storms.

There were two other severe micro-bursts across East Texas Thursday evening. All showed similar appearance on radar. Anytime we have surface temperatures around 100 degrees, any storm that develops could produce very strong winds. We will be watching the radar closely to see if we see a repeat tonight.

Severe Storms Possible This Weekend

2011-05-20T09:05:00.001-05:00

A storm system will bring a chance of strong to severe storms across East Texas this afternoon. This morning a line of storms was weakening to our west but as it moves into our area during the early afternoon hours, there should be enough heat and humidity to fuel addition thunderstorm development. Right now it appears the greatest threat from the strongest storms is hail up to the size of quarters and gusty winds to 60 mph. An isolated tornado can’t be ruled out but at this time the tornado threat appears fairly low.
Storms could continue overnight into early Saturday morning before ending shortly after sunrise. Most of Saturday appears to be dry but as we head towards the afternoon and evening hours, a few strong storms could develop in the daytime heat. Right now it appears there will not be as many thunderstorms on Saturday as we will see today. As with today’s storms, we could see a few reports of hail and high winds and because of this much of East Texas is under a slight risk of severe weather tomorrow.
Sunday looks to be warm to hot with lots of humidity. Highs will approach 90 degrees in many areas with heat index values in the lower to middle 90s. During the afternoon a disturbance will move into the area giving the northern half of East Texas another shot of afternoon storms. These storms may have a little more energy to feed on so a few could become severe. The main threat of severe weather will be north of I-20 and will include the chance of hail up to golfball size and strong gusty winds to 70 mph. With the forecast instability there could also be an isolated tornado with any of the stronger storms that do develop.
So if you have any outdoor plans this weekend stay tuned to the latest weather developments. I would not cancel them just yet but have a backup plan ready in case rain and storms move in. The good news is much of East Texas could see between 1 and 2 inches of rain before the weekend is over, something all of East Texas could use.

Tornado Paths From Space

2011-04-29T18:12:00.004-05:00

Extreme long track violent tornadoes as seen from space.

Thoughts on Wednesday's Outbreak

2011-04-29T08:38:00.008-05:00

As the National Weather Service Offices across the country continue to conduct damage surveys from Wednesday's tornadoes, it is certain this will go down as one of the deadliest tornado outbreaks in U.S. history. At the writing of this article the current death toll stands at 297, only 38 short of the Super Outbreak of 1974, the last time the U.S. saw a tornado outbreak take over 300 lives.

What is not known is the exact number of tornadoes that hit the Southeastern United States. Many national media outlets have been stating that according to the National Weather Service there have been 164 confirmed tornadoes. This is just not the case. There have been 164 official “Reports” of tornadoes (now the official report is up to 211) from Wednesday.

The word report continues to be left out during the reporting of these large tornado outbreaks. Last week it was stated over 240 tornadoes touched down when in reality the number was closer to 113. Now this is still an incredible amount of tornadoes but you see how the actual amount of tornadoes is much less than the reports.

Wednesday’s 164 reports (now 211) of tornadoes will probably be much lower in the actual count. To give you an example, there were 20 tornado reports in Alabama from just Lawrence, Limestone, and Madison Counties. This was more than likely one continuous long track EF-4(with a possible upgrade to EF-5) tornado. Six tornado reports in Alabama come from Tuscaloosa and Jefferson counties where by looking at video, it is apparent this is one long track violent tornado, more than likely an EF-5.

Now I am in no way trying to take away from the incredible outbreak that occurred on Wednesday. I was alive during the Super Outbreak but have no recollection, I was only 2. So this is by far the worst tornado outbreak in my memory. Once all the damage surveys are complete this outbreak could come very close to the Super Outbreak. But until we know for a fact, I wish National media outlets would stick to the facts and not leave out key words making their statements false. I really have to believe that in 1974 if we had the communication abilities, numerous spotters and chasers, and population density that we have now, the actual tornado reports would have been closer to 500.

One thing is certain. This was a tragic event that took many lives. This one hit close to home for me. If the Madison County tornado would have veered off its course by only 200 yards, I very well could have lost my parents. A couple of houses down the street are swept clean and lives were lost. Feeling helpless here in Texas I had to watch this event on radar, knowing I did all I could by informing them they needed to take shelter. The longest five minutes of my life were the time it took to get a call to go through on my Mom’s cell phone once I saw the tornado moved off to their East. Thankfully they are still with me but my thoughts and prayers are with everyone who lost loved ones in this tragic event. I have a very bad feeling the death toll will eclipse the Super Outbreak of 1974 when everyone is accounted for……I hope I’m wrong.

An Active Two Days Ahead

2011-04-24T16:59:00.004-05:00

The next two days across East Texas could be very active weather wise, potentially life threatening. Two mid level disturbances will be moving through the area over the next 48 hours. The first is progged to move through Monday afternoon and evening and the second 24 hours later late Tuesday. As these systems move through the area strong to severe storms will develop across the area with a few of these storms producing very large hail and isolated strong tornadoes. So, I thought I would give a detailed look at how the atmosphere is setting up for what could be a historic weather day.

Monday the first mid level disturbance will swing through the Red River Valley by the evening hours dragging a dryline into the western counties of East Texas. Along this dryline thunderstorms will develop as peak heating provides plenty of instability. MLCAPE values will approach 2500 J/kg and combine this with 0-6km shear between 50 and 60 knots, the atmosphere is primed for robust rotating updrafts capable of producing strong supercells. By looking at the sounding for Tyler at 7PM Monday,
we can see there is ample instability for storms along with a fairly decent amount of low level turning of the winds with height. This will increase the tornado threat with any supercell that develops. Right now it appears that isolated supercells will develop wets of the Trinity River around 3PM and make their way across East Texas during the late afternoon and evening hours. In addition to a tornado threat, the amount of instability and shear will combine to make very large hail a significant threat. I would not be surprised to see a few reports of hail between baseball and softball size Monday afternoon and evening.

Now normally when we see a significant severe weather event here in East Texas the following day is usually calm. With this event, another mid level disturbance is forecast to move through the area. This system will develop a surface low near the Metorplex. This low is forecast to move northeast towards Texarkana during the overnight hours. This will bring another dryline through East Texas followed by a cold front. By looking at the forecast sounding for Tyler
we once again see an ample amount of instability but this time the low level turn of the winds with height is much stronger thanks to the aforementioned surface low. 0-1km SRH is forecast to be over 300 Tuesday afternoon making significant tornadoes a threat. In fact the significant tornado parameter is peaking at 13.6 Tuesday afternoon just north of Tyler.
Whenever we see values this high we become very concerned about the possibility of EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes. The last time I saw a STP value actually that high was the day of the Yazoo City EF-4 tornado last year.

A lot could change between now and late Monday and Tuesday. Tuesday significant tornado threat is dependent on the actual track of a low pressure that has yet to develop. But right now it does look like a very active day for areas east of I-35 Monday and Tuesday and that includes all of East Texas. The Storm Prediction Center has all of East Texas under a slight risk of severe weather including a hatched outlook, meaning significant severe weather is a threat. More than likely much of East Texas will be under a moderate risk of severe weather come tomorrow. As for Tuesday's official forecast. Most of East Texas again is under a slight risk but if the current forecast holds true, I think we will once again be under a moderate risk if not a high risk on Tuesday afternoon.

Tornado Outbreak Possible Tomorrow

2011-04-13T19:28:00.004-05:00

The 12Z NAM has come more in line with the other models and is painting a scary picture tomorrow afternoon. Right now it appears the cap will remain in place for most of the afternoon allowing temperatures to warm into the 80s. The cap will weaken by the evening hours but still be strong enough to only produce isolated convection. This means any storm that develops will be able to tap into all the energy available and quickly become severe. Wind shear is forecast to be very strong so supercells are likely. These storms will be able to produce baseball size hail and tornadoes. Again there will only be a few storms that develop so most areas will not see severe weather. The best chance of seeing severe weather including isolated strong tornadoes would be from I-30 north.

Below is the forecast sounding for 7PM tomorrow in Paris,TX. There is plenty of cape on the sounding and the hodograph on the right shows a tremendous turning of wind with height. Moisture is fairly deep here as well. You combine all these ingredents and if a storm develops near Paris it would likely be a supercell with hail and tornadoes.

The next image shows the forcast sounding for the sime time in Tyler, TX. here to we see plenty of CAPE on the sounding along with a large clockwise turning of wind with height on the hodograph. The moisture here looks deep enough as well to fire convection. The cap is a little stronger here meaning the chance of a storm developign is lower than in the Paris area but if it can form, watch out. It would likely be severe with very large hail and tornadoes.

The final image shows the forecast sounding for the same time in Lufkin, TX. You can see the amount of CAPE is a little smaller. Also the wind shear is not as strong. But the main limiting factor for storm development is the lack of deep moisture and two inversions, caps, the air parcel would have to rise through. SO for Deep East Texas the chances of severe weather appear to be very small. Storms will more than likely not form.

With this looking like it might develop into a fairly significant tornado event, I will be heading out tomorrow after my Midday show to see what develops. Tagging along will be our newest StormTracker Meteorologist Brett Collar. Stay Tuned!

Tomorrow's Set Up Much Like 04/09/09

2011-04-13T08:46:00.005-05:00

A storm system will be moving through the Southern Plains tomorrow with the threat of severe weather for parts of the area. Much of Eastern Oklahoma has been placed under a moderate risk of severe storms with a slight risk of severe weather from I-20 north. But as I look at the forecast data it looks like this set up for severe weather is looking much like the set up we had on April 9th 2009. For those who may not remember what happened on this date four supercell thunderstorms developed across East Texas producing hail and tornadoes continuing on into Louisiana. A couple of these tornadoes were on the ground for over 30 miles producing EF-3 damage.

So what happened that day and how does it compare to tomorrow’s event? Well, a strong area of low pressure developed at the surface dragging a dryline through East Texas during the early evening hours. There was a conditional threat of severe weather across East Texas meaning storms may not develop but if they did, watch out! Why was the threat conditional? There was a warm layer of air around 5000 feet in the atmosphere we call a cap. This cap forces rising air back to the surface putting a lid on thunderstorm development. Because of this cap temperatures were able to warm well into the 80s producing plenty of instability. At the same time wind of different speed and direction at different levels in the atmosphere was producing strong wind shear across East Texas. This wind shear allowed for any storm that could develop to rotate, producing large hail and tornadoes. As the dryline was forced through East Texas, there was enough lift to cause this cap to break in a few locations causing severe storms to explode.

A very similar set up is being forecast for tomorrow across the Southern Plains. An area of low pressure will develop dragging a dryline through the area. The next few images below show the position of the cut off low in the mid levels of the atmosphere. First the actual cut off low front April 9th 2009 then form various forecast models.

You can see that the second image and last image both place the cut off low in nearly the exact location as April 9th 2009. The outlying model is the NAM which places the cutoff low farther north. This is important because if the NAM’s solution is correct, the formation of the surface low would be farther north placing less forcing across East Texas limiting the threat of thunderstorm development.

The next set of images show the actual 850mb level low pressure analysis for April 9th 2009 followed by the NAM and GFS forecast position of the 850mb low. Again the NAM has this low much farther north which would limit the threat of severe weather here in East Texas. However the GFS is pretty much positioning the low pressure in the exact location from April 9th 2009.

Usually I like to use what the NAM is showing for my short range forecasting. This high resolution model seems to do a fairly good job in predicting the position of weather features with 48 hours. However, today the NAM is the odd model placing the low pressure much farther north than all the other computer models. All models seem to have a pretty good handle on this disturbance in its current position but then send the energy in different directions. When you look at the forecast instability across East Texas, 2000+J/kg of surface based CAPE and Lifted Index Values around -5°C, there is more than enough energy to produce strong to severe storms. You combine that with nearly 70 knots of shear and 0-1KM Storm Relative helicity values over 240, any storm that develops would rapidly become severe, rotate, and more than likely produce golfball size or greater hail and an isolated tornado. Again with such a variance between the models we will have to watch the eventual path of this developing low pressure. If it moves farther north, the chances of severe weather will be very small. If it moves farther south tomorrow could be a very interesting day. Stay tuned!

Storms with Hail Possible Today

2011-03-29T08:48:00.000-05:00

A developing storm system will bring a complex weather pattern to East Texas today. An area of low pressure will develop along a stalled front to our southwest. This will pull a warm front into our southern counties later this afternoon allowing scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop. South of this warm front temperatures could reach 70 degrees south of a Crockett to Hemphill line. Along and south of this line any storm that does develop could produce large hail and gusty winds.

North of this warm front across most of East Texas, temperatures will be well below normal with cloudy skies today. High temperatures will range from the middle 50s to near 60 degrees across the northern two thirds of East Texas. In this area showers and thunderstorms will develop later this afternoon above the cool air near the surface. Because these storms will develop from air above the surface, the tornado and high wind threat is very low. However, mid level temperatures are very cold allowing any storm that develops to produce hail. Most of the hail that develops today should be smaller than dime size but a few storms could produce hail larger than quarters. The farther south you go today the better the chance of seeing large hail.

The developing low pressure will move off to the northeast later this evening dragging a cold front through the area. This will bring drier air to the region tomorrow afternoon and continue to keep temperatures below normal. Another disturbance will swing through East Texas Wednesday night bringing a slight chance of showers. Most of East Texas should receive between a quarter to a half inch of rain over the next 36 hours. A few lucky spots could receive up to an inch of rain in heavier storms.

"Super Moon"

2011-03-21T10:29:00.002-05:00

A perigee full moon occurred over the weekend making the moon appear about 14% larger than it normally does. This is an occurrence that happens about every 18 years. So if you thought the moon looked a little bigger, you were right. The above image is from my new 550D with a Tamron 28-300mm lens at 300mm. This was also shot in the 7X movie crop making my 300mm shot really 2100mm or 3360mm 35mm equivalent.

Strong to Severe Storms Tomorrow

2011-02-23T08:34:00.002-06:00

A strong storm system will be moving into East Texas during the day tomorrow bringing a chance of severe thunderstorms to parts of the area. Right now it looks as though an area of low pressure will develop across northwest Texas and move into eastern Oklahoma during the afternoon. As this low moves of to the northeast a cold front will move through East Texas during the late afternoon and evening hours. This will bring the front through during the peak heating of the day giving the area more energy to fuel these storms. Most of East Texas is under a slight risk for severe storms tomorrow.
With the low pressure expected to be in eastern Oklahoma when the front moves through the area, our winds will be out of the southwest around 15 to 20 miles per hour during the day. This southwest wind will help to limit the threat of tornadoes tomorrow keeping the amount of spin available in the atmosphere much less than if the surface winds were out of the southeast.
Winds above the surface will also be out of the southwest but much faster, around 80 mph. Any thunderstorm that develops could tap into these winds bringing them down to the surface. So the threat of strong gusty winds appears to be the main threat at this time. The mid and upper levels of the atmosphere area still fairly cold meaning there will also be a threat of large hail from any storm that can develop.
This is still a developing situation and a lot could change between now and tomorrow afternoon. If the area of low pressure forecast to develop moves farther south, then our surface winds would become more favorable for tornado development. All of East Texas north of a Palestine to Nacogdoches to Center line is under a slight risk of severe storms tomorrow. Please stay tuned for the latest on this developing storm system

Another winter storm on the way

2011-02-07T07:49:00.002-06:00

Last week’s winter weather was replaced by a very nice weekend as many areas saw temperatures soar into the 60s Sunday afternoon. A cold front moved through the area last night so today will be much colder than this past weekend but not a cold as we saw last week. Anther arctic front is heading towards East Texas late Tuesday into Wednesday morning followed by a disturbance in the upper atmosphere. It is the combination of these two events that will bring another round of wintry weather to East Texas.

With the event being 48 hours out a lot could change between now and then but based on the latest information, this is what will likely happen. Tuesday night a strong front will move through the area dropping temperatures to near or below freezing in out northern counties. Here it looks as though the precipitation will switch quickly from rain to snow. 2 to 4 inches of snow look to fall across our northern counties before this system rapidly moves out of the area.

For our central counties along and immediately south of I-20, precipitation looks to start off as rain. As the temperature falls to near freezing during the late morning hours, rain will start to freeze on elevated surfaces. As continue temperatures fall into the upper 20s by the early afternoon precipitation should transition to sleet, causing slick spots to develop on area roads. Late in the afternoon precipitation could change to snow for a couple hours allowing for 1 to 2 inches of snow to fall.

In our southern counties including the Lufkin and Nacogdoches areas, rain looks to be the primary precipitation form until late in the afternoon. During the late afternoon hours temperatures will drop below freezing allowing for rain to mix with sleet and freezing rain. Before the precipitation there could be a few flurries but little or no snow accumulation is expected at this time.

Again this forecast will likely change between now and Wednesday so please continue to stay tuned for the latest developments. A winter storm watch has been issued for our northwestern counties and more watches, advisories, or warnings could be issued tomorrow.

Lake Effect Snow in East Texas?

2011-02-02T10:31:00.006-06:00

Very cold temperatures and northwest winds greeted East Texas this morning. Lows dropped down into the lower teens in many areas with wind chill values below zero. Another unusual weather phenomenon that occurred this morning was lake effect snow. Lake effect snow is very common on the leeward side of large lakes, mainly along the Great Lakes, as very cold air moves over the relatively warmer waters. However, this is very rare here in Texas. Usually the size of our man made reservoirs is not large enough to produce a lake effect. Most lakes that produce good lake effect snow have the winds traveling at least 50 miles over the water. Of course here in East Texas we have some very large reservoirs but none give the usual 50 mile long fetch of cold wind blowing across the warmer water to produce heavy snow. However, in rare cases you can get flurries or even light snow over smaller lakes and even rivers if the conditions are right.

So what happened? At 4 AM most of East Texas was under clear skies except for the extreme southern counties. Our wind was out of the northwest around 15 mph moving over a deep snow pack to the north dropping our temperatures into the middle teens in most areas. Many of our East Texas lakes are oriented from northwest to southeast, parallel to the wind flow. This maximized the available moisture fetch available. Now the greatest fetch of wind over water this morning was about 20 miles. So heavy snow is not expected however, if there is a great enough difference from the water and air temperatures, moister will rise off the lake and form very low clouds, almost appearing like steam fog.

Well, this morning we had an average of 30°F difference from the lake temperature to the air temperature. This is more than enough of a difference needed to cause moisture to rise for lake effect snow. Usually you look for a difference of 13°C or about 23°F. The surface wind speed usually needed to produce a lake effect snow event is between 10 and 40 mph. Our wind speed was on the lower end which actually helps the air mass acquire the moisture needed to produce snow down wind.

This is a radar shot from the Shreveport NEXRAD that shows two snow bands that developed this morning. Both of these bands developed off of the warmer waters of nearby lakes. The other bands that developed this morning were too far away to be detected by radar but could be seen from space. Notice the cloud streaks that formed downwind from all of the area lakes this morning.

So next time you see a big weather story in Buffalo, NY showing you how many feet of snow fell remember, we here in East Texas got a little taste of what our neighbors to the north have to deal with many times a year.

Fellow Texas Tigers

2011-01-12T08:35:00.003-06:00

The above photo is of my daughter Halen and me after our snow the day before the big game. Below is a photo from some fellow Texas Tigers the Gilbert family with their big Auburn snowman. If there are any other fellow Tigers that have any Auburn snow pictures please send them my way to gdade@kltv.com. Thanks and WAR EAGLE!!

Heavy snow appears likely for parts of East Texas Sunday

2011-01-08T12:02:00.003-06:00

A significant winter storm is forecast to develop later tonight and move into the area on Sunday. An area of low pressure in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere is moving across the Panhandle this morning and will drop down to the Hill Country this evening before moving northeast across East Texas tomorrow afternoon. At the same time an area of low pressure at the surface will develop along the Texas Gulf coast throwing Gulf moisture across East Texas. Precipitation should begin to fall before sunrise Sunday morning but the big challenge in this forecast is, what type of precipitation. Right now based on the latest data, this is the what we are expecting.
Between 6:00AM and noon we will see a mixture of rain sleet and snow across the area. For areas along and east of a Marshal Center line we could be looking at freezing rain as well. For areas west of that line, temperatures should remain above freezing during this time period so no ice accumulations are expected.
Between Noon and 3:00PM the upper level low pressure will be moving into the area bringing much colder air above the surface. As this happens most of the precipitation north and west of a line from Marshal to Jacksonville to Palestine should begin to chance over to snow. South and east of this line a mixture of rain sleet and snow can be expected as far south as Crockett to Lufkin to Center. Areas East of the Marshal to Center line may be dealing will small ice accumulations.
Between 3:00PM and 6:00PM the upper level low should be over East Texas changing all precipitation to snow. It is during this time that significant accumulations of snow could occur along and just to the north of the low's eventual path. The best chance of seeing four or more inches of snow will be along and north of a Palestine to Jacksonville to Marshall line. If heavy snow bands develop then some parts of East Texas could see more than six inches of snow.
Between 6:00PM and Midnight the upper low will be moving East of the area. During this time accumulating snowfall should begin to end. Right now it looks as though all of East Texas could see at least 1 inch of snow north of a Crockett to Lufkin to Hemphill line with areas between I-20 and I-30 possible seeing 4 to 6 inches or more of snow.
Again, this forecast is dependent on the development of a surface low in the northern gulf and the eventual path of the upper low to our west. Please stay tuned for the latest changes in the forecast over the weekend.

Rain sleet and snow to hit East Texas Sunday

2011-01-07T08:17:00.002-06:00

A strong storm system will develop across the northern Gulf this weekend bringing some much needed rain to East Texas. Precipitation forecast show much of the area could receive between one and two inches between Saturday night and Monday morning. At the same time this surface low is developing across the northern Gulf, and upper level low pressure will be moving into our northern counties. It is this upper level low that will provide enough cold air in the mid and upper levels for snow to develop. Right now it looks as though temperatures Sunday afternoon and evening will be in the middle 30s from I-20 north. Although this is above freezing, it is cold enough for snow to reach the surface. Based on the forecast intensity of the precipitation, it does appear some areas of East Texas could see accumulations of snow Sunday afternoon and evening. The best chance of seeing accumulating snow is over our northeastern counties, mainly along and north of a Sulphur Springs to Jefferson line. Here one to two inches of snow with locally heavier amounts could occur.
As for the Tyler Longview and Jacksonville areas, it appears right now we will mostly see a rain event mixed with sleet and snow at times late Sunday. At this time no accumulations are expected but this could change based on the eventual path of the low pressure.
In the Lufkin Nacogdoches and Crockett areas mainly a cold rain is expected. If the low pressure tracks farther south, then a mix of sleet and snow could occur. As with all winter forecast in Texas, a lot could change between now and Sunday. If the low track farther south, much of East Texas could see an accumulating snow event. If the low tracks farther north, all areas of East Texas would probably just receive rain.
Once Sunday’s storm system moves out, much colder air will move into the area. Highs by Tuesday and Wednesday still only appear to be in the 30s. A fast moving disturbance could even produce a few flurries during the mid week period but no travel problems are anticipated with this system. Please stay tuned to the latest weather information on this developing winter storm.

Next Week Still Looks Cold, Maybe Colder The Following Week

2011-01-05T08:52:00.006-06:00

Arctic air is still scheduled to make its way into East Texas Next week. Right now it appears that a strong arctic front will move through the area late Monday or early Tuesday bringing the coldest temperatures of the New Year. Temperatures behind this front will more than likely remain in the 30s for highs next Wednesday and Thursday before winds begin to turn out of the southeast next Friday warming us back into the 50s. It also appears we will see a good deal of cloud cover during the middle part of next week which will actually help us out. Without the cloud cover we could easily drop into the lower teen next week during the night time hours. But thanks to the clouds, most areas will only drop into the lower to middle 20s, still cold but not quite as bad as we could be. We will also be watching a disturbance in the mid levels of the atmosphere on Wednesday. As with most arctic air masses, this one will be very dry. However, with this upper level energy a few snow flurries could be squeezed out across the area. As it looks right now no accumulation would occur thanks to the very dry air mass.

Once this first batch of cold air moves out of the area our attention will focus to the possibility of an even colder air mass moving into the area the following week. The upper air pattern is forecast on Saturday the 15th shows the jet stream surging north over Alaska and northeastern Siberia. This is typically a pattern that sends some of the coldest arctic outbreaks into the United States. This is the same pattern we saw last January that sent temperatures into the upper single digits and lower teen across East Texas. Right now it looks as though temperatures could be as low as 10 degrees in the area if what is forecast occurs.

You Think The 20s Are Cold!

2011-01-03T10:15:00.005-06:00

As we ushered in the New Year fairly cold temperatures greeted us this morning. Some of our East Central locations dropped to near 20 degrees this morning. But, if the long term forecast models we use to peek into the future are right, 20 degrees could feel balmy by the middle of January. It appears the upper level wind pattern will become favorable for an arctic outbreak to invade the country during the second and third week of January as the jet stream will surge north into northern Alaska and then plunge south across the continental United States. This is the same upper air pattern that tapped very cold air from the Arctic bringing the coldest air in over ten years to East Texas last January.

Now a lot can change between now and then with this forecast being over 10 days out but, right now it looks as though two chunks of arctic air will invade the country; one around the 10th and the second around the 17th of January. The first air mass appears to be much below normal and if it does move into East Texas we would see lows in the teens and highs in the 30s. This is not quite as could as last January but it is well below normal.

The second chunk of arctic air is being advertised right now as some of the coldest air seen in years. If, and this is a big if, this does occur, this could very well be the coldest air mass parts of the country has seen this new Millennium. The current forecast surface temperatures for Monday morning the 17th place the 0 degree line south of I-20 meaning much of East Texas would be below zero.
This would smash records for that date which are in the lower and middle teens and would come close to setting all time record lows for January.

Now with that said, I seriously doubt we will see temperatures as cold as advertised. We typically see long range forecast models producing extremely cold air this far out. I will say I have not seen it advertised this cold before this far south. Before we hit the lower teens in most areas last January our long range forecast models were advertising temperatures dropping to near zero. So based on what happened last year it is logical to think temperatures between 8 and 12 degrees could occur with this outbreak.

Again, this all depends on the eventual placement of the jet stream. If the upper air pattern changes, the cold air could be forced farther east and miss our area of the country. Or it could remain locked in Canada. Only time will tell. But based on the information available to us right now, it does appear some very cold air will move into the area the second and third week of this month. Stay tuned!

Atlanta, LA EF-4 Tornado

2010-12-01T09:23:00.018-06:00

Monday afternoon strong to severe storms developed over East Texas and West Louisiana as a cold front moved across the area. As we see many times this during cool season severe weather events, this situation involved a low instability high shear environment. The storm that produced the EF-4 tornado developed in the Toledo Bend area of East Texas early Monday afternoon south of Hemphill in an area of MLCAPE just under 1000 J/kg.
You combine this with 0-6km bulk shear around 40 knots, and the atmosphere was set for the possibility of supercells thunderstorms. As the storm moved to the northeast it entered an area where MLCAPE was approaching 750 J/kg, not overly impressive when one thinks of tornadic supercells. However, when you look at the surface based lifter index you will see the values are around -4°C,
which shows a decent amount of instability, more than likely produce what is called short fat CAPE. This would allow for strong updrafts to form in the lower level of the atmosphere where the overall shear was very high. 0-1km shear was on the order of 40-45 knots near Atlanta one hour before the tornado was produced.
At the same time the 0-1km Storm Relative Helicity was over 400 in southwestern Winn Parish.
At 2:46PM the circulation associated with the developing tornado was about 5 miles south of Natchitoches, LA moving into the area of 400+ 0-1km SRH. 20 Minutes later the circulation was very intense just to the west of Atlanta, 4 minutes before the tornado touched down. Shortly after touching down, this tornado destroyed a well built brick home causing EF-4 damage.

Another interesting observation is the decrease in the vertical intensity of the reflectivity values before the tornado was produced. The storm was at its most intense, at least by the depth of reflectivity, 10 minutes before the tightest velocity couplet occurred. At this time 60dbz reflectivity was nearing 30,000 feet in the atmosphere.
At the time of the strongest velocity couplet the height of the 60dbz reflectivity was nearly cut in half, just reaching above 15,000 feet in the atmosphere. Could this collapse help in the sudden intensification of the tornado to EF-4 strength where winds were estimated to have reached 170MPH for a short path?Studies have shown in the past that supercell mesocylones have strengthened after a weakening phase in overall vertical thunderstorm strength. It is interesting to see the short path of the EF3 to EF4 damage with this storm and that it occurred after this decrease in intensification.

The tornado finally dissipated just northwest of Winnfield for a path length of 14 miles. Later, this same thunderstorm would produce another tornado rated EF-1 near Bosco before moving into Mississippi.

Sleet and Snow at 45 Degrees?

2010-11-30T09:12:00.003-06:00

A cold front moved through the area yesterday ushering in cooler and drier air to East Texas. Behind the front precipitation developed in the colder air in the form of snow around 12,000 feet in the atmosphere. As this snow fell towards the surface, most of it evaporated not reaching the surface. However, in a few areas where the precipitation was heavy enough, light rain and sleet did make it to the surface mixed at times with a few snowflakes. So how is it possible for sleet and snow to reach the ground when the surface temperature is well above freezing, in the middle 40s?

Well, you have to look at the temperature and moisture content of the entire atmosphere to see if sleet and snow will reach the surface, not just the surface temperature. By looking a forecast sounding from Tyler this morning, or a profile of the atmosphere, precipitation was developing in an area where the temperature was between -10°C and -20°C, the perfect temperature for snow crystal growth. As the snow fell from the clouds it entered a layer of the atmosphere that was very dry allowing most of the precipitation to evaporate. However, in areas where the precipitation was heavy enough, a few flakes remained. Once the snow reached around the 5000’ mark in elevation it entered an area where the temperature was slightly above freezing. So much of the remaining snow partially melted in this layer only to refreeze, in the form of sleet, as it entered below freezing temperatures again around 4000’ in elevation.

Now according to the forecast sounding for Tyler the depth of above freezing temperatures from the surface was about 1900’, usually enough to melt the sleet and snow before reaching the surface. But another temperature that is very important in winter weather forecasting in the wetbulb temperature or the temperature that would be reached when evaporation occurs. The depth of the above freezing wetbulb temperature this morning was only around 800’. So in areas of more intense precipitation this morning, the process of evaporational cooling would bring temperatures to the wetbulb level allowing sleet and snow to reach the surface. I must say I expected a little light sleet this morning, like we saw last Friday. But I was very surprised to see a few snowflakes hitting the wind shield this morning until I analyzed the forecast sounding. There always seems to be something exciting in the world of weather.

A Cold Thanksgiving?

2010-11-19T09:51:00.003-06:00

An arctic air mass is building in Northern Canada and looks to move south into the United States next week. Temperatures this morning were as low as -35°F in Canada and this air mass will slowly drift south the next few days. By Wednesday Morning temperatures look to be between -10°F and -20°F across Montana and the Dakotas.
As this air mass moves south, it will moderate considerable due to the lack of snow cover across the country. But it still should be the coldest air we have seen this year across East Texas. How cold? Well we could be looking at temperatures falling through the 40s on Thanksgiving Day and bottoming out in the 20s by Friday Morning. So “Black Friday” looks to be mighty cold for all the shoppers looking for a good deal.
Of course this is all a few days out and a lot could change between now and then. The biggest challenge with this forecast is the fact the upper level winds will be parallel to the front as it moves across the Plains. This sometimes can slow down or even stall the frontal passage. However, arctic area is very shallow and dense and usually will slide under the upper level winds. So right now I really don’t see anything stopping this air mass from making it our way.
Another interesting aspect of this forecast is the potential for an over running precipitation event. Right now the forecast looks dry behind the front but, with the upper level wind out of the west southwest, Pacific moisture could lift over the cooler air at the surface. Normally this causes clouds and rain to develop. This is also how we usually see our icy events in East Texas but this air mass does not look as though it will be cold enough. At the same time Pacific air could be lifting over the colder Canadian air, East Texas will be in a favorable area for lift, in the right rear section of a jet streak. You combine this with an upper air disturbance that is forecast to move into the area on Thanksgiving we could be looking at a cloudy day which would make our high temperature much colder with a few scattered showers.
Again, we are still a few days out from this frontal passage and a lot can change between now and then. Our official forecast for Thanksgiving is for partly cloudy skies and high temperatures in the middle 50s. But don’t be surprised if this forecast changes and is colder by the time we get into next week and have a better grasp on what this arctic air mass will do.

A Narrow Opportunity for Severe Weather Tomorrow

2010-11-11T09:45:00.007-06:00

Severe storms are possible tomorrow across northern Texas and central Oklahoma ahead of a very strong 500mb vort max moves across the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma Friday evening. Even though low level instability will be much lower than usual for severe thunderstorm development, the dynamics of this system appear to be enough to overcome this limitation. All the following forecast information is based off the 11/11/10 12Z NAM.
Right now SBCAPE is forecast to be between 500 and 700 J/kg for a narrow window of time Friday afternoon, with nearly 100 J/kg in the lowest 3KM of the atmosphere. If any additional daytime heating can occur, SBCAPE could reach 1000 J/kg in a few areas.

In addition to the available instability, 0-6km shear will me more than ample for supercell development. Shear values will be close to 50 knots over the greatest axis of instability which could promote robust rotating updrafts. Also, the shear vectors will remain perpendicular across the boundary of storm development so look for to develop in a non-linear form making supercells a likely storm mode

As for the tornado threat, 0-1km SRH is over 200 for a few hours ahead of the cold front so any storm that can develop in this environment could produce enough low level rotation. This along with 0-1km shear values over 20 knots should be enough to allow an isolated tornado or two to develop if storms can initiate ahead of the cold front.

Right now the SPC has a 5% chance of severe weather in this area with a mention of a supercell or two. I do believe that if the forecast trend the NAM is indicating continues a slight risk will be issued, maybe as early as the next day 2 outlook.

5 Tornadoes Confirmed Across East Texas on Sunday

2010-10-28T10:40:00.005-05:00

This past weekend saw an onslaught of severe weather across East Texas. Numerous reports of large hail and high winds were reported along with sightings of funnel clouds and possible tornadoes. The National Weather Service has confirmed 5 tornado paths across East Texas from Sunday afternoon and evening.
The first tornado touched down around 3:30 PM 4 miles northeast of Daingerfield along county road 4105. This tornado was on the ground for 3 miles and was approximately 75 yards wide and rated an EF-0. The images below show the storm at the time of this tornado.

The second tornado touched down around 6:00 PM in near Lone Oak close to the Hunt/Rains county line. This was a very short lived tornado on the ground for only 200 yards and approximately 50 yards wide. Ten homes received some sort of damage in the Rolling Hills Community. This tornado was also rated an EF-0. The images below show the storm at the time of this tornado.

The third tornado touched down around 6:15 PM north of Mt. Vernon near Highway 37 and county road 1030. This was a very short lived tornado as well with a path length of only a quarter of a mile and a width of 50 yards. This tornado was also rated an EF-0. The images below show the storm at the time of this tornado..
The fourth tornado touched down around 6:47 PM west of Omaha in Morris County along Highway 67 and county road 3325. This tornado was on the ground for three quarters of a mile and was 75 yards wide and was also rated an EF-0. The images below show the storm at the time of this tornado

The fifth tornado from Sunday touched down around 6:54 PM in Wood County 7 miles northwest of Mineola and was also rated an EF-0. The tornado touched down near the intersection of Highway 69 and FM 779. This tornado was on the ground for nearly 2 miles and mainly caused damage to trees. The images below show the storm at the time of this tornado.
Thankfully most of the tornadoes from Sunday caused very little damage, touching down mainly in no populated forested areas. Doppler radar showed strong rotation with many storms throughout the day. Even though large damaging tornadoes did not touch down, very large hail caused a great deal of damage throughout East Texas.

New Record Set for Lowest Pressure

2010-10-27T09:34:00.001-05:00

A new record for the lowest pressure ever measured on the U.S. Mainland from a non-tropical system was set yesterday as a massive low pressure moved across the Upper Midwest. The pressure dropped to 954.95 mb or 28.20” of mercury in Big Fork, MN. This beats the previous record of 958 mb or 28.28” of mercury during the Blizzard of 1978. To put this number in prospective, this low pressure is about the same you would find in a land falling category 3 hurricane. Hurricane Ike had a pressure of 950 mb or 28.05” of mercury. Now this record is preliminary until all the data can be measured. One thing is for certain, this system was a tremendous wind and severe weather producer. Wind gusts over 70 mph were common near the low pressure and a strong line of severe storms raced across the Ohio and Tennessee river valley causing tornadoes and wide spread wind damage.

Severe storms possible today

2010-10-11T08:43:00.001-05:00

There is a slight chance of severe weather across East Texas today. A cold front out to our west will move into the area later today and will provide enough lift for a few scattered thunderstorms to develop. Any storm that does develop could produce hail to the size of quarters and gusty winds possibly as high as 60 mph. The overall threat does not appear to be very high at this time however I do expect a couple of severe weather reports before the day is through.
Much of East Texas remains under burning bans today due to the dry conditions. The good news today is our relative humidity will be much higher than we have seen across East Texas. This means the fire danger is not as high today however, it is still not recommended to do any outdoor burning.
Although we will see a few scattered storms across East Texas today, most areas will more than likely remain dry so burning bans will remain in effect for much of the area. As we head towards next week another cold front is forecast to move into the area. This front may be able to produce more widespread rain so until then, look for dry conditions to continue in most areas.

Igor Could Become a Cat 5 Storm!

2010-09-13T09:04:00.004-05:00

Hurricane Igor continues to strengthen as he moves across the Atlantic. It now appears Igor could become a rare category 5 hurricane later today as top winds could peak above 160 mph. The high resolution visible satellite image above shows Igor having a well defined eye with bright white clouds surrounding the center of the storm. This indicates Igor’s eye is surrounded by very tall thunderstorms or deep convection as we like to say in the weather world. The image below gives us an enhanced look by adding colors to the cloud tops. The colder temperatures are indicated by the orange and red colors. Notice the red nearly making a circle around the eye indicated very tall clouds and a healthy eye wall.

So where will Igor go? Thankfully for the United States Atlantic Coast it appears a blocking high pressure will keep Igor out to sea. Most computer models send Igor and the weaker storm to follow Julia out in the central Atlantic. However, we will need to monitor the stronger high that is located southwest of Great Britain. There are a few models that weaken the High over the U.S. and strengthen the high over the eastern Atlantic. If this does happen Igor could be pushed to the west towards the New England coast. In the aforementioned scenario, Igor could make landfall near New York City as a category 2 or 3 storm but at this time this seems highly unlikely.

We are monitoring another area of disturbed weather south of Cuba. This tropical disturbance could become a depression over the next couple of days. Right now it appears this system will move west and hit the Yucatán Peninsula continuing west into Central Mexico. This last system has the best chance of any to make it to the U.S. Mainland so we will continue to watch it closely.

Major Snow Storm...Six Months ago!

2010-08-12T08:51:00.004-05:00

What a difference 6 months makes. Six months ago today all of East Texas awoke to one of the greatest snowfalls in East Texas history. Snowfall amounts ranged from just over an inch in the Lufkin area to a foot of snow in Canton. Other substantial amounts were 8” in Athens, 6” in Tyler, and 7” in Longview. The winter of 2009-2010 was a much colder winter than we usually see in these parts thanks to a fairly stagnant weather patter allowing cold air outbreaks to surge into East Texas throughout the winter months. An accumulating snow even occurred on the first day of spring in East Texas. So after such a cold winter, why has our summer been so hot? Well, we once again are in a stagnant weather pattern keeping a strong ridge of high pressure over East Texas. This area of high pressure has allowed high temperatures to remain near the century mark for nearly 10 days.

Now this heat has been extreme but it has not been record setting. High temperatures have remained about 5 degrees cooler than record high temperatures and we can expect this trend to continue. So yes it has been a very hot summer, especially late July until now, but it has been much worse. The summers of 1921, 1936, 1939, 1980, and 1998 all and numerous consecutive days with record high heat. When will it end? I know the funny and trendy answer here is to say October but, we usually see a fairly significant Canadian air mass move into the area during September. Temperatures in northern Canada and northern Alaska have been cooling down rapidly and we have even seen some snow in these areas. A strong area of low pressure will send some of this air south next week but by the time it reaches the lower 48, the air mass will modify greatly. So I know it seems as though this heat will never end but trust me, in a few weeks it will just be a memory, like our historic snow earlier this year.

South Dakota May Have Set a New Record for Hail Size

2010-07-28T07:23:00.005-05:00

A new weather record for the United States could have been set last week in South Dakota. A hailstone that appears to be 8” in diameter fell in Vivian, South Dakota Friday
afternoon and this would break the record of 7” with fell in Aurora, Nebraska in 2003. Forecasters from the National Weather Service out of Aberdeen, SD will make the drive to Vivian to see if the hailstone officially will break the record. Damage reports range from busted car windows to holes punched through the rooves of houses, even reports of large hail landing on the floor of one resident’s living room.

But the 8” stone may not have been the largest from this day. According to the Rapid City Journal one resident of Vivian, Punk Strom, found a stone that had been outside for over and hour and a half and still weighed 1.8 pounds when he weighed it at the Vivian post office. This would break the record for heaviest hailstone in the United States of 1.6 pounds which fell in Coffeyville, KS in 1970. We should know later today whether or not this hailstone sets a new record for the United States.

Bonnie Brewing.....

2010-07-22T10:29:00.003-05:00

A new tropical depression has formed southeast of Miami, FL and could become Bonnie as early as this evening. This system has been struggling to develop over the past couple of days due to an upper level low pressure just east of the surface low. This upper low has been shearing the western side of the circulation keeping it from developing faster. It looks as though this upper low will move off to the northwest but remain close enough to this depression to keep it from developing into a hurricane. The current forecast brings this system into the Texas Gulf Coast late Sunday early Monday as a tropical storm.
The forecast also brings this storm into East Texas providing a chance for cooler weather and the possibility of heavy rains but it must be noted that the average error past four days is over 200 miles. So a lot could and probably will change between now and Monday morning.

Dangerous Heat in East Texas

2010-07-14T08:44:00.001-05:00

Dangerous heat is expected across East Texas today as mostly sunny skies warm temperatures in to the middle and upper 90s this afternoon. Combine this heat with the relative humidity across East Texas today and heat index values will range between 103 and 108 degrees. Because of this, heat advisories have been issued for East Texas through tomorrow evening.

Tomorrow will be very hot as well with highs in most places ranging between 97 and 100 degrees with the heat index approaching 110 degrees at times. Once the heat index reaches 105 degrees, the human body has a very hard time cooling itself. Please postpone strenuous outdoor activity until the cooler morning or late evening hours. If you have to be outdoors, wear light weight light colored clothing and drink plenty of water. Heat exhaustion will set in very fast during the afternoon heat. This could lead to heat stroke and possibly death. On average 162 lives are lost due to heat in the United States each year, about the same amount of deaths caused from floods, lightning, and tornadoes combined! Please take the heat seriously and stay cool.

Alex to Become a Hurricane

2010-06-28T09:16:00.002-05:00

Tropical Storm Alex has now entered the Western Gulf and will more than likely be a hurricane this time tomorrow. Conditions are very favorable for a rapid development of Alex with warm water and a lack of wind shear. The current forecast track is still brings Alex just south of Brownsville, TX as a strong category 2 hurricane early Thursday. However the overall trend of the tropical forecast models we use is to bring the path of Alex farther to the north. This could not only bring some of the effects to East Texas, but could allow Alex to strengthen to a category 3 hurricane by remaining over the Gulf a little longer.

So what does this mean for your 4th of July Holiday Weekend? Right now if Alex moves on its official track, East Texas would remain dry and hot with highs reaching the lower to middle 90s. If Alex moves farther north, the forecast changes drastically. Alex appears as though it will be a very large storm with tropical storm force winds extending at least 200 miles from the center. This large circulation would pump lots of Gulf moisture into the area providing thunderstorms with heavy rain to the area Thursday through Saturday.

The greatest threat from Alex will be very heavy rain. Alex is forecast to move very slowly no matter which path he takes. Rainfall rates of over 10 inches could occur along Alex’s path through Saturday. So flash flooding could be a big concern to parts of East Texas if Alex takes a northerly path.

Another threat from Alex as with any land falling tropical system would be isolated weak tornadoes. The northern and eastern quadrants of Alex could produce thunderstorms capable of spawning tornadoes. If Alex moves farther north, then the tornado threat could move into parts of East Texas, especially our southern and western counties.

We will have a much better grasp on Alex and his forecast track over the next 48 hours. We could see anything from sunny hot conditions this upcoming Holiday Weekend to heavy rain and flooding. Please stay with your East Texas News Leader for the latest developments on Alex and its potential effects on East Texas.

Tropics Heating Up!

2010-06-23T14:50:00.008-05:00

A tropical disturbance that we have been watching for nearly a week is now becoming better organized in the Caribbean Sea. If you recall this system was located out in the central Atlantic last week in an area that was favorable for development. But most tropical systems climatologically have a difficult time developing that far east and this one followed the same fate.

Now the disturbance is in a more favorable area both meteorologically and climatologically for development. The eventual path of this tropical system is still up in the air as tropical forecast models show this system moving anywhere from Brownsville, TX to Mobile, AL.
In fact the GFLD model shows this system becoming a major hurricane with top winds near 120mph off the Louisiana Coast by late Sunday early Monday.
However the HWRF model shows this system as a strong tropical storm with top winds near 70 mph off the coast of Mobile, AL by Tuesday.
The overall strength of this tropical system will depend on the eventual path it takes. The Yucatan Peninsula is very important to the development of this storm. If it can say over the water and not pass over land, like the GFLD indicates, this system would have the time and energy needed to become a Hurricane. If it moves over the peninsula, it would more than likely remain a tropical storm or not develop at all. Only time will tell.

At the same time this is occurring, a fairly strong surface high pressure is forecast to develop over the Great Lake States and send a backdoor cold front into the area. If this does occur then the overall path of this tropical disturbance would be more to the west making the Texas Gulf Coast a likely landfall.

So how would a tropical storm or hurricane affect the oil spill out in the Gulf? Would the spill have an impact in its intensity? Will a strong hurricane spread oil over most of the Gulf region? These are many questions I have been receiving over the past few weeks. These are all great concerns so I will tackle them for you the best I can.

First let’s look at the strength of a tropical system being affected by the oil spill. It has been theorized that if we were to place a significant amount of oil in the path of a hurricane, this would stop the amount of warm water the storm could ingest, acting like a barrier. While this could have some truth during initial storm creation, with a storm that has already developed this would not be the case. The waves and rain out ahead of the storm would dilute the oil greatly, not making it a barrier what so ever.

Which brings us to our next question, would this hurricane spread oil to all areas of the Gulf? In all actuality, a hurricane would bring some oil inland with the storm surge and this could cause some problems. But the overall affect the hurricane would have on the oil in the Gulf would be to dilute it. The heavy rain, high winds, and turning seas would help accelerate the break down process more than if we did not have a hurricane.

Another question that I have been getting is will the oil spill cause the hurricane to rain down oily rain. The answer to this is no. The amount of oil spilled so far, although staggering, is only a drop in the bucket so to speak to the amount of water vapor evaporated and stored in the storm. So the hurricane clouds would be made of water vapor thus the rain would not contain oil. For more on hurricanes and oil spills, please read this article from NOAA.

Pikes Peak Ponorama

2010-06-14T17:49:00.001-05:00

Slight risk of Severe Storms Today

2010-06-09T08:38:00.001-05:00

An area of low pressure is spinning across the Hill Country this morning and promises to bring a chance of storms to the area. Our Western Counties are already under a flash flood watch as we anticipate at least 2 inches of rain across our western counties with isolated areas receiving between 2 and 4 inches of rain.

In addition to the heavy rain threat, there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms with the main threat being gusty winds and weak tornadoes. The area of low pressure to our south is acting very much like a tropical low. As with any land falling tropical system, there is a chance of a few tornadoes and we see that threat today across East Texas, mainly our Southwestern Counties from Athens to Alto and southwest.

This area of low pressure will be with us again tomorrow keeping the chance of thunderstorms around. As we head towards the weekend however, we will begin to dry out and heat up with mid 90s heat returning.

NE Colorado Supercell 6.6.10

2010-06-08T19:52:00.003-05:00

Tornado Warned supercell south of Ft. Morgan, CO 6/6/10. There was a report of a tornado touchdown but from our vantage point we did not see it. We sat on this storm for about 2 hours. The first part of the video is of the rotating base and wall cloud. the second part of the video shows the back side of the storm with mammatus and lots of lightning. The last few frames of the time lapse is of a second supercell that moved in behind the first storm. Notice the cork screw appearance to the updraft tower.

Looking Towards Memorial Day

2010-05-27T10:55:00.000-05:00

Well some much needed rain hit arts of East Texas yesterday but will this rain ruin your Holiday Weekend plans? Today we will see hot and humid conditions again today but, not quite as humid as yesterday. This will keep the overall coverage of thunderstorms less from what we saw yesterday. A few places could receive some much needed rain but it looks like the chances of rain where you live today are less than 20 percent. Any storm that forms today could produce small hail and strong gusty winds although we are not anticipating much in the way of severe weather.

Tomorrow a ridge of high pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere will begin to build back into East Texas. This will cause the air to sink across most of the area eliminating the threat of afternoon storms. The one exception to this will be across our far southern counties where from Crockett to Lufkin to Hemphill we could see an isolated storm tomorrow afternoon.

This ridge will of high pressure will stick around through Sunday keeping most of East Texas dry and warm. Some slightly drier air will mix down during the afternoon hours so the heat index will not be quite as hot as we have seen this week. This should also allow for nighttime temperatures to dip down into the middle to upper 60s.

As we head towards Memorial Day, it looks as though most of East Texas will continue to remain dry. The ridge of high pressure will begin to break down just a bit so we can’t rule out a pop up storm developing but I wouldn’t cancel those outdoor barbeques just yet. You can always see the weather where you live by clicking out interactive radar to help you with your outdoor plans.

Stay safe and everyone have a great Memorial Day Holiday, and remember why we celebrate.

May 20th 2010 Storm Chase

2010-05-26T10:48:00.005-05:00

Well it has taken me awhile but I am finally writing my chase account from last Thursday May 20th. The severe weather set up from Thursday event included an outflow boundary interacting with a stationary front across Central Texas just south of Dallas.
Early in the afternoon strong to severe storms developed along and north of a southward moving outflow boundary from Wednesday’s convection farther north. These storms became severe and produced wind damage in the Dikes community of Hopkins County, just east of Sulphur Springs.

It was along the intersection of the southwestward moving outflow boundary and stationary front where supercells would continue to develop throughout the afternoon and move off to the south and east. There were two official tornado reports and numerous reports of large hail, up to baseball size.

The first storm we encountered was in Henderson County near the Cedar Creek Reservoir. This storm was showing signs of weak rotation but no true wall cloud feature was seen while we were on the shores of Cedar Creek Reservoir. As we drove south from Tool along 247, we noticed an elephant trunk shaped funnel extending towards the ground. From our vantage point we could not tell if this funnel reached the ground or not. By the time I could snap a shot of the funnel, it was much farther off the surface and more horizontal. This storm continued to produce these funnels that would not quite reach the ground. It looked as though as these funnels lowered, the cooler air from behind the outflow boundary was undercutting the updraft causing them to rope out before even reaching the ground. This storm produced at least three funnels before moving away from our vantage point.

From this storm we raced west to catch the latest storm that had developed along the intersecting boundaries. This storm was showing signs of strong rotation both on radar and from our ground view. Although this storm would not go on to produce a tornado, large hail did occur. We were hit with quarter size hail wrapping along the back side of this storm..

Our third storm became the storm of the day for us developing near Waxahachie and moved southeast through Navarro and Freestone Counties. This storm would go on to produce wind damage and hail up to the size of Baseballs near Corsicana. From our vantage point it also appears that a brief but rather wide tornado could have touched down over Richland Chambers Lake.

As we approached this storm radar showed a very well developed deep convective supercell, a constant midlevel rotation was show on this storm for well over an hour.
As this storm moved over, we raced south to stay out of the hail core. For a time we were under a large rotating wall cloud. It was during this time that I witnessed an event I have never seen before. We noticed mini vortices about 5 feet in diameter rotating around the wall cloud. Three or four of these little vortices moved in front of our vehicle. The did not appear to be in contact with the storms updraft but it was interesting that these dust devil size vortices were moving in the direction of the parent circulation. Were these mini vortices a precursor to a developing tornado? I am not sure but it was an event I had never witnessed before.

We finally moved out ahead of the wall cloud and drove down I-45 to Streetman. It was here we noticed a circulation that appeared to be in contact with the cloud base, a brown swirl rotating around a large bell funnel. I quickly grabbed my camera and took a photo.
The contrast on the storm was very poor so it was hard to exactly see what we were seeing. By taking the photo and zooming in a bit and adjusting the contrast, you can see a funnel with what appears to be debris rotating around. Here the debris, which at first was brown is now white. It is at this time when the funnel moved over Richland Chambers Lake and the white debris appears to be water. The next image is a radar grab from the storm two minutes before a snapped the shot of the funnel. There was strong rotation but not a tight as what you would like to see for a strong tornado. This could be why there was very little damage on land before this feature moved over the lake. We drove looking for a damage path but could only find sporadic snapped trees along with one weak structure with its roof blown off. Was this a large EF-0 tornado? We will probably never know. Officially this will go down as a severe thunderstorm with baseball size hail and sporadic wind damage. But form our vantage point; it looks as though a tornado could have occurred as well. Next time I will roll video instead of taking a snap shot. Then everyone could see the rotating funnel and debris wrapping around that we saw.

Possible tornado east of Richland

2010-05-21T07:18:00.004-05:00

Chances of severe weather increase this afternoon

2010-05-20T08:33:00.000-05:00

Yesterday’s conditional severe weather threat turned out to be nothing more than a few clouds thanks to the warm front moving farther into Oklahoma. Storms that erupted on this front rapidly became severe producing many tornadoes and large hail to our north.
Today most of East Texas is under a slight risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon. After looking over this morning data, it appears much of East Texas is under the risk for large hail, possibly up to golfball size and strong gusty winds. A very unstable atmosphere is in place across East Texas with a weak cap, or layer of warm air just of the surface. As we warm up this afternoon the cap will weaken allowing for thunderstorms to develop. Storms will be scattered in nature so everyone will not see them but any storm that develops could become severe. We are also noticing an outflow boundary from yesterday’s storms between the I-20 and I-30 corridor. We will have to watch this boundary very closely because if any severe storm were to attach itself to this boundary, low level rotation could increase and we could see an isolated tornado or two if this occurs. The greatest risk of severe weather across East Texas is along and south of an Emory to Quitman to Jefferson line and north of a Crockett to Lufkin to Hemphill line.
Storms should begin to move out of East Texas late tonight into the pre-dawn hours tomorrow. This will set the stage for a very warm and humid weekend. Highs will reach the lower 90s in most areas but could approach the middle 90s from Crockett to Lufkin to Hemphill. In these same areas the Heat Index could approach 100 degrees.

It’s taking a while but, much needed rain is on the way

2010-05-14T10:56:00.001-05:00

The cold front we have been advertising for days has stalled out to our west this morning. We are still anticipating this front to move into the area overnight tonight increasing the chance of rain for all of East Texas. This afternoon we will see a few scattered showers and storms develop thanks to day time temperatures reaching the middle to upper 80s. These storms will be few and far between so unfortunately, most areas will remain dry.

It is tonight that our front will begin to sag south into East Texas and with it, our rain chances increase. It looks as though we will see off and on thunderstorms throughout the weekend so keep the rain gear handy. As you can see from the forecast rainfall across the area, most of East Texas is forecast to have at least 1.5” of rain, the purple colors on the map.

A disturbance will move through the area Sunday night and push the cold front off to our east. There is a chance that as this disturbance moves through Sunday night, very heavy rain could occur. A few of our forecast guidance suggest some areas could see over 3” of rain. We will have to monitor this very closely. Due to the lack of rain, heavy rain will run off increasing the threat for flash flooding. Again this is not set in stone and a lot could change between now and then. Stay with your East Texas News Leader for the latest.

Much Needed Rain On The Way

2010-05-13T09:21:00.000-05:00

Over the past few weeks much of East Texas has fallen further behind in average rainfall with much of the area now 6 to 8 inches below normal. This rainfall deficit has dried out the soil from fall and winter rains to produce dry vegetation. This also has been allowing for our temperatures to be well above normal the past few days with highs reaching the lower to middle 90s across East Texas.

Well all this is about to change this weekend. Now we are not expecting to knock out the rainfall deficit but in a few areas, a major dent in the deficit will occur. This morning we are tracking a cold front out to our west. Strong thunderstorms producing very heavy rain and hail are developing to our west late this morning and will be heading towards our area later today.

Now for most of East Texas today looks dry. We will see a few isolated storms develop during the peak daytime heating hours, especially over our western counties. The cold front will move into and stall out across our area during the day Friday. As this happens, showers and storms will develop. The heaviest concentration of rain will be north of I-20 where the greatest amount of moisture and lift will be available. But areas across our southern counties could even see a few thunderstorms develop Friday afternoon thanks to greater daytime heating and instability.

Overall it looks as though areas north of I-20 could receive 1 to 2 inches of rain this weekend with greatest amounts near the Sulphur Springs and Mt. Pleasant areas. As the front continues to sag south, a greater chance of thunderstorms will occur across the Nacogdoches Lufkin and Hemphill areas on Saturday producing up to or slightly over 1 inch of rain. So we will not make up our rainfall deficit this weekend but take a big step towards getting closer to normal.

As for the threat of severe weather with this system, the overall threat looks fairly weak. There is a slight chance one or two storms could become marginally severe producing hail and gusty winds but the atmosphere right now appears it will not be conducive for severe storm development.

A Severe Storm Possible Today

2010-05-07T09:57:00.001-05:00

Another warm humid day is in store for East Texas this Friday with temperatures once again approaching the 90 degree mark. However, today we have a cold front moving into the area and this front has the chance to produce a couple of storms later today. The storms that do develop along this front will only be isolated but could pack quite a punch. Right now it appears a few storms could produce large hail around the size of quarters and gusty winds up to 60 mph. Due to the isolated nature of these storms, the Storm Prediction Center has removed most of East Texas from the slight risk of severe weather today. But we will continue to monitor this developing situation. The greatest chance of seeing a severe storm this afternoon would be from a Center Alto Crockett line and points south.

After the cold front moves through this evening, a very pleasant day is on tap for our Saturday. We will see a few clouds however; northeast winds will bring very dry air into the area. Afternoon temperatures in the middle to upper 70s will make for a very pleasant afternoon.

It still looks as though the front will move back to the north on Mother’s Day. We are not anticipating wide spread rain or storms with this warm front but a few areas could see rain. Right now it appears the Lufkin Nacogdoches areas could see scattered showers during the morning hours with the activity moving north throughout the day. Scattered showers will be possible along I-20 by midday and by I-30 during the afternoon hours. Again, this does not appear to be a wide spread rain event and most areas will remain dry. To keep up with the latest throughout the weekend be sure to check out our interactive radar to see if it will rain where you live.

Happy Mother’s Day to all the Moms out there!

Yesterday's Central Texas Chase

2010-04-27T06:49:00.004-05:00

A few lightning shots from a severe storm over Temple Texas Yesterday afternoon.

Severe Storms appear likely Friday

2010-04-21T08:47:00.007-05:00

As we move closer to the weekend it is appearing more likely that a severe weather event will occur across Parts of East Texas Friday afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center currently has a large area of the Plains and Midwest under a slight risk of severe weather Friday, including all of East Texas. It looks as though parts of East Texas could be upgraded to at least a moderate risk of severe weather, mainly north of I-20.

Severe weather will begin to break out this afternoon across the Texas Panhandle as a strong storm system begins to take shape. This storm system will move to our north on Friday dragging a dryline and a cold front into East Texas. Right now the atmosphere is forecast to be conducive for very large hail, larger than golf balls, gusty winds, and isolated tornadoes. The forecast hodograph for Friday afternoon shows a tremendous turning of the wind with height. The large clockwise turning is favorable for tornadoes however, in the lowest 1km of the atmosphere; the turning of winds is not as great. So I do believe we will see an isolated tornado or two but right now it does not look as though we are looking at a major tornado outbreak. I will add many times with an atmospheric set up like we will have Friday, storms will move slightly faster and more to the right than forecast. This will greatly increase the low level clockwise curvature of the winds increasing the tornado threat.

Right now it appears the greatest threat of severe weather will be large hail. By looking at the forecast sounding for Tyler Friday afternoon, a lot of ingredients are coming together to produce large hail. There is a large amount of positive buoyant energy, CAPE, which will allow for robust updraft strength. There is also a cap in place, an area where the temperature increases above the earth’s surface holding back initial thunderstorm development. This will allow daytime heating to reach its peak before explosive thunderstorm development occurs. Also the sounding shows a large amount of the buoyant energy is in the hail growth region, between -10°C and -30°C. This tells me we will see some very large hail. When you combine this with strong wind shear, golfball size hail seems very likely with the possibility of baseball size hail occurring in a few storms.

Overall this does appear to be a significant severe weather threat. Both the hodographs and soundings are very similar to the event which occurred April 9th last year. If you don’t remember, this event produced 5 tornadoes in East Texas and 87 tornadoes across the Southern Plains and Southeast.

Severe Weather Possible Friday

2010-04-20T09:03:00.004-05:00

So far the severe weather season of 2010, other than January 20th, has been very quiet. A continued intrusion of cold air over the late winter and early spring weeks have suppressed the Gulf moisture needed for strong storm development well to the south. This is about to change, at least for the end of this week. Currently we are watching a strong upper air disturbance along the Pacific Northwest coast which will move to the four corners region by Wednesday afternoon. As this system moves out of the Rockies in to the Southern Plains, a dryline will develop across west Texas and move its way towards our area. Right now it appears we will see some severe storms develop Thursday Afternoon from the Eastern Texas Panhandle south towards West Texas. These storms will move east and lose some of their strength Thursday night into Friday morning. This dryline will still be out to our west Friday afternoon giving East Texas plenty of time to warm into the lower 80s. This will set the stage for severe storms to develop out to our West late Friday afternoon and move east into East Texas Friday evening and overnight. At this time it appears there will be plenty of instability and wind shear to keep these storms at severe levels through the overnight hours. The atmosphere will be conducive for very large hail, strong gusty winds, and isolated tornadoes. Remember we are still four days away from this developing storm system and a lot could change between now and then. Severe weather outbreaks require many ingredients to come together at once. Any difference in timing could cause these storms to be weaker or stronger. Below is an outlook for severe weather on Friday. This is NOT an official forecast. The Storm Prediction Center does have most of East Texas outlooked for a 30% or greater chance of severe weather Friday. The outlook below is based on the 0Z model runs and can and probably will change between now and Friday. For those used to SPC outlooks, do NOT use the colors on this outlook to determine slight, moderate , and high risk areas. I have enhanced an area in red where I feel the greatest risk of severe weather will take place on Friday. I do believe we will see a moderate risk of severe weather issued for Friday.

Tornado hits India

2010-04-15T10:38:00.005-05:00

You may have heard on the news that a powerful cyclone hit Northeast India Tuesday Night killing over 100 people. In actuality what appears to have hit this area of the world was a tornado. This area of the world is no stranger to severe weather and tornadoes, many times called cyclones in this part of the world. Based on archived satellite images it does appear a broken line of strong thunderstorms, possibly supercells, developed as moist southerly winds off the Bay of Bengal were forced vertically along the front range of the Himalayan Mountains. I do not know for sure if these were indeed true supercells as the nearest Doppler radar site is over 400 km away and I could not find any archived data. Based on the latest information from the Regional Meteorological Center in Alipore a tornado did indeed move across Northeast India from the northeast corner of the Bihar State into West Bengal. Top winds were estimated around 125 km/hr or78 mph which would be an EF-0 tornado in the U.S. Lack of warning and poor construction can be attributed to the loss of life, over 120 at last count, many of which lived in mud shacks.

Below is a satellite loop I made from archived images.

Remembering One Year Ago Today

2010-04-09T11:12:00.009-05:00

One year ago today a tornado outbreak began across East Texas and proceeded to spread across much of the Mid South and Southeast. Before the outbreak ended, 87 tornadoes touched down causing 5 deaths and injuring 146 people.

The day began with a moderate risk of severe weather across parts of Arkansas and a slight risk across most of East Texas and Louisiana. Across East Texas, the threat was very conditional, meaning if the storms were to develop, they would rapidly become severe but there was still a chance no storms would form at all.

Well, the storms did develop and ended up producing large hail and 5 tornadoes across East Texas.

Fortunately for us, very few injuries were reported and no fatalities occurred. It was a different story across other areas of the south where one tornado in Arkansas killed 3 people.

One of the most interesting aspects of this event was in Southwest Arkansas where an anti-cyclonic tornado struck near Centerpoint. This tornado was rated an EF-2 and had a damage path of up to a half mile, very large and strong for an anti-cyclonic tornado.
Now anti-cyclonic tornadoes are not unheard of, but what is interesting about this one was the unusually large size. The storm that produced this tornado began as a part of the supercell which produced three tornadoes in Cass County. This cell split and the left mover remained as strong as the right mover. The left mover showed anti-cyclonic circulation for around 30 minutes before the half mile wide tornado touched down.

You can read more about this event from the Nation Weather Service in Shreveport here.

Strong Gusty Winds, Hail, and Tornadoes Possible This Evening

2010-04-02T11:51:00.006-05:00

Strong to severe storms are likely to develop across East Texas this afternoon and evening bringing the threat of large hail, strong gusty winds, and even an isolated tornado or two. A dryline, a front separating moist tropical air from dry continental air, is slowly moving east as of late this morning. Based on radar trends the dryline should be moving into our western counties from Greenville down to Palestine around 4PM. Out ahead of this line a few showers and storms have developed on the tail end of an upper air disturbance moving to our north. These showers should diminish in intensity over the next couple of hours. An area of sinking air on the right front side of a jet streak is currently moving into the area.

This could allow for addition heating this afternoon. By late this afternoon, East Texas will be in what we call the right rear our right entrance region of this jet streak. This will aid in lifting to increase the storms’ strength this evening. It still looks as though the greatest threat will be strong gusty winds and hail however, any additional surface heating will increase our chance of tornadoes. Current visible satellite image shows clearing skies over much of East Texas. This could allow temperatures to reach near 80 degrees again today and this will increase the instability needed for severe thunderstorm growth.

It still appears the best timing for these storms will be from 3PM in our western counties, 6PM in the Tyler area and 10 PM in our Eastern counties.

Severe Storms Possible Tomorrow Evening

2010-04-01T11:11:00.001-05:00

Spring time warmth has finally moved into the area and although many of us are glad to see it, it does have a downside. The warmer temperatures we have seen this week will aid in the development of strong to severe storms tomorrow afternoon west of Dallas. These storms will form into a squall line late tomorrow and race through East Texas during the evening hours. Right now it appears the main threat from these storms will be large hail and strong gusty winds. The atmosphere will be conducive for tornadoes tomorrow as well however, the tornado threat looks to be small. If we have any isolated storms develop out ahead of the squall line, these storms would have a chance to produce tornadoes so we will have to monitor this situation closely.

The best timing as of right now for severe weather is for the storms to enter our western counties late tomorrow afternoon or evening. The line of storms will probably make their way into the Tyler Longview areas around 9PM, and then exit East Texas around 1AM Saturday.

Left Moving SC Supercell

2010-03-28T19:52:00.004-05:00

Most tornadic supercells have a counter clockwise circulation, or cyclonic circulation in the northern hemisphere. The cell I am showing you has NOT had a tornado reported with it much less a tornado warning but has shown an anti-cyclonic or clockwise circulation for sometime. This storm is what we cause a left mover. Many times the left moving part of a splitting supercell weakens and dies out. However, in some cases the left moving cell can become very strong. In the image above you can see the air moving towards and away from the GSP radar site shows a clockwise circulation. We had a similar situation last year in Arkansas were a left moving super cell produced an EF2 tornado. The image below shows what appears to a backwards hook echo.

"Cold Core" Set up in Oklahoma for Saturday?

2010-03-26T10:56:00.009-05:00

As with most of the storm systems to move through the Southern Plains this year, tomorrow’s event will be lacking a major necessity, moisture. Wednesday’s storm system has scoured most of the low level moisture and dewpoints will be hard pressed to reach the middle 50s across East Texas. However, the system moving into the Southern Plains is very dynamic and I look for at least a broken squall line to develop ahead of a dryline East of I-35 tomorrow afternoon. The threat for tornadoes is very small however, we could see an isolated strong wind gust.
There is an area under the 500 mb low near the Oklahoma Kansas state line that has my interest for the possibility of tornadoes tomorrow afternoon. Models are not forecasting very high dewpoints with this system however, with the very cold mid level temperatures associated with the upper level low, low level instability will be increasing throughout the afternoon.

The WRF-NMM 5km is showing a good deal of Instability tomorrow afternoon as the upper low moves over the Kansas Oklahoma state line. LIs by 1PM are approaching -6 near Tonkawa, OK as the image below shows.

The next image continues to show good instability in this area along with another area of increased instability near Ada, OK with LIs approaching -8 by 4PM.

The next big question for tomorrow's event is will there be enough moisture. The image below shows dewpoints approaching 50 degrees by 1PM tomorrow.

By 4PM dewpoints are progged to be in the lower 50s under the 500 mb low, image below. Both the GFS and NAM are a little farther east with the low and have dewpoints about 5 degrees cooler.

So will we see any severe weather with this set up? If the WRF verifies, I believe we will see a few low topped supercells develop near the triple point and an isolated tornado or two seems possible. I would also look for a broken line of storms to develop along the dryline east of I-35 down into East Texas. We could see some hail and gusty winds with these storms. The next three images show storms developing around 1PM through 6PM.

I am going to wait until I get a good look at all the 12Z model data but it looks at this time Tonkawa, OK will be a good starting point. I will have to leave around 6AM to get there an hour or so before initiation. We shall see what happens.

Strong storms possible tonight across East Texas

2010-03-24T10:24:00.002-05:00

A strong area of low pressure is developing to our northwest today and will drag a cold from through the area early tomorrow morning. As this front moves through showers and storms will develop along and ahead of the boundary. The atmosphere is favorable for strong gusty winds and hail as this line moves through. There is also a slight chance an isolated tornado could develop with these storms however, the over threat of tornadoes appears to be fairly low with this system. If more moisture than is forecast surges north ahead of this system, the threat for tornadoes could increase early tomorrow morning as the wind field in the atmosphere becomes more favorable for tornado development. We will be monitoring this developing situation throughout the evening and overnight tonight. Behind this system partly cloudy skies will move into East Texas tomorrow with cooler temperatures.

We will see another chance of storms late Saturday but at this time moisture seems to be a limiting factor in severe weather. We could see an isolated strong storm late Saturday but widespread severe weather is not anticipated at this time.

One More Snowman!

2010-03-21T14:42:00.003-05:00

Well, my little girl Halen was able to make another snowman today. I am kind of hoping this is the last one for the year, I am sure it is.

Heavy Snow For Parts of East Texas

2010-03-21T11:25:00.002-05:00

Heavy snow is beginning to fall across parts of East Texas this first FULL day of Spring. Reports of over 8” of snow have been received from areas near Dallas and this heavy band is now moving through Van Zandt and Henderson Counties. The good news is the sun’s energy is helping to melt most of the snow today however, in very heavy bands snow will accumulate on grassy surfaces and bridges and overpasses. Near blizzard conditions have been reported with visibilities less than a ¼ mile in heavy snow with wind up to 35 mph. If you have to be out and about this afternoon, use caution.

Strong Storms Followed by Cold, Maybe Snow, To Usher in Spring

2010-03-19T09:37:00.003-05:00

A very strong upper air disturbance is swinging through the Desert Southwest this morning and promises to bring big changes to the area this weekend.

Out ahead of this upper air disturbance a strong surface low pressure will develop late this afternoon across West Texas. This low will travel northeast overnight bringing a cold front to the area by Saturday morning. It looks as though this front will have enough forcing to produce a line of thunderstorms, some of which could be strong. The best chances for seeing severe weather at this time appear to be well off to our south and east however; a few of these storms could produce strong gusty winds and small hail.

The big story is what will occur behind the front. The front looks to move through East Texas around noon tomorrow, close to the Vernal Equinox marking the start of Spring at 12:32 PM tomorrow. As the front moves to our east, another, stronger area of low pressure will develop along the front producing very gusty winds and bringing much colder air into the area. This low will not be in a hurry by any means. This will keep the chance of rain and thunderstorms in the area throughout a good bit of the day. Temperatures by 6 PM tomorrow will be approaching the upper 30s north of I-20 with wind chill values in the upper 20s! It is at this time that the upper level disturbance associated with very cold temperatures aloft, will move across the Red River Valley. As this occurs, any rain left in the area along and north of I-20 could mix or change to snow. That’s right snow! Right now it does not look as though we would see any accumulation but areas to our north could see a very significant snowfall.

Parts of Oklahoma could get as much as 15 inches of snow if this low moves as slow as some computer forecast models are showing. If the upper air disturbance moves farther south, then areas north of I-20 could see some accumulation so we will have to watch this very closely. This is a very similar set up to the Easter snow of 2007. Again, the overall chance of snow in East Texas is small, but it is there. One thing is for sure. Temperatures will be much colder than normal through the beginning of the next work week. Many areas in East Texas will see freezing Temperatures both Sunday and Monday morning. This blast of Old Man Winter will not last long as by Tuesday we will once again see highs reaching the 70s.

A Look at Yesterday's Chase

2010-03-11T08:55:00.007-06:00

Yesterday's chase was very successfully as we were able to capture great structure photos and end the day with a great lightning display. Above is the image of the storm that became severe in Cherokee County during its initial growth.

The photo above is the rotating updraft base from a severe cell in southwestern Anderson County. This base was fairly high and was undercut by the dryline. This caused the storm to quickly lose its intensity. I do like the fact you can see a little precipitation shaft behind the base. This was the storms rain/hail wrapping around the mesocyclone.

The image above is from the supercell base which became the prolific hail producer from Lindale to Gilmer and points north and east. The lowering is from the storm's inflow or where the warm moist air is ingested into the updraft. This eventually formed a nice wall cloud but due to roads and trees, a great image is not available.

The next three shots is how we ended the day. We decided to take a break from chasing and head to Love's Lookout north of Jacksonville. Here we had a great view of severe storms over Rusk, Cherokee, and Nacogdoches Counties. They performed well for us as we were able to get numerous lightning shots.

Lightning!!

2010-03-10T21:19:00.002-06:00

Heavy Rain Possible Today, Severe Storms Wednesday

2010-03-08T09:32:00.003-06:00

A potent storm system spinning over the Four Corners region today will help showers and thunderstorms develop across East Texas this afternoon and evening. The wind profile in the atmosphere is very conducive for severe weather today however, with a lack of surface heating and low dewpoints, severe weather is not expected today.

We could see a strong storm or two as we do see a little elevated instability this evening. The main threat would be small hail and a few gusty winds.

Today’s system will drive a dryline/cold front through the area early tomorrow. With clearing skies and gusty west southwesterly winds, high temperatures will reach the middle 70s tomorrow afternoon.

Another potent storm system is currently diving down the Pacific coast this morning and will swing across the Southern Plains Wednesday. This system will have much warmer air to work with along with higher amounts of moisture. At this time it appears there is a fairly good chance of seeing severe storms Wednesday including isolated tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center currently has the Eastern two thirds of East Texas under a slight risk of severe storms on Wednesday. If the trends continue to look the way they do I look for at least our Eastern Counties to have an upgrade to a moderate risk for severe storms. Right now it looks as though scattered supercells will develop east of I-35 around noon Wednesday and move east. These storms will have the potential to produce large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. As strong forcing catches up to these storms I look for a squall line of severe storms to form late Wednesday afternoon increasing the threat for damaging winds across our Eastern Counties. As with all severe weather events, a lot could change between now and Wednesday but is does appear there is a chance of a significant severe weather event Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Fun with Photos

2010-03-07T19:26:00.004-06:00

Tried out my new 50mm f/1.8 II lens today. Took about 30 photos of my daughters toy truck and put it to time lapse.

Spring Time Pattern to Bring Storms Next Week

2010-03-05T08:04:00.016-06:00

A strong storm system is moving across the Southwest United States this afternoon and will set the stage for rain and thunderstorms across East Texas Monday. The big question this time of the year is will we see any severe weather with this system. Right now it looks as though there is a Chance of a few strong thunderstorms but a lack of moisture may keep things from getting too out of hand. Yesterdays mid range forecast data showed there is a chance of severe storms across East Texas Monday. As we get closer to the event, forecast models are still suppressing the moisture necessary for severe surface based convection, the storms that can produce tornadoes. The image below show the forecast dewpoint temperatures Monday evening as the storms move through. The brighter green indicated the 50 degree dewpoint. We would normally need to see dewpoints in the low 60s to start introducing a tornado threat with this type of set up. I still feel models are underestimating the dewpoint temperatures but I have my doubts on low 60 dewpoints making it up to I-20.

However, there will be plenty of forcing to help with in elevated convection so I do think we will see a few strong, possible severe storms with hail being the main threat. The image below shows vorticity at 500mb. We can see a negative tilted vort max moving through the area. this will aid in rising air parcels which could lead to thunderstorms.

We can also see that by the image below East Texas will be in the left front quadrant of a jet streak. This too will aid in lift helping to form thunderstorms.

Monday's event is starting to look more like a heavy rain event than a major severe weather threat. Again, if higher dewpoints move into the area, the threat of severe weather will increase. The available shear will help make any thunderstorm become supercellular and if this storm is able to ingest surface based instability, there is enough low level turning with height of the winds to where tornadoes would be a concern.

Another storm system will be moving towards East Texas quickly on the heels of Monday's system. There are some differences in the mid range forecast models so I will point out the "worst case" scenario from the GFS. Notice in the image below the dewpoints are much higher than with Monday's system. They do approach the 60 degree mark increasing the threat for tornadoes.

The image below shows the forecast sounding for Wednesday afternoon. You can see that there is over 1000 J/kg of CAPE, plenty of buoyancy for thunderstorm development this time of the year. Another concern is the location of the LCL, lifted condensation level. The is normally where we would find the cloud base in thunderstorm development. The LCL is less than 800 feel above ground level, very low and very conducive for tornadoes.

Now that we can see we will have rising air, what will be occurring in that column of rising air. By looking at the hodograph below you can clearly see a large clockwise turning of the wind with height. This is very conducive to tornado development.

Now the difference between the LCL and LFC, level of free convection, is around 3000 feet. But if you look at the images below you can see there is other areas of forcing to help rise that air from the LCL to the LFC.

Both the 500mb vorticity and jet stream look very similar to Monday's event. So we will have added lift to help generate storms.

The amount of bulk shear Wednesday is forecast to be over 50 knots as well which will promote supercellular structure. The possible difference between Monday and Wednesday is on Wednesday storms should be routed in the surface layer meaning there is a threat of tornadoes. I will also state that the European forecast model keeps the area of low pressure along the Gulf Coast keeping surface based storms well to our south basically eliminating the tornado threat. We will have to monitor these developing systems very closely over the weekend.

Pattern Change Promises Warmer Weather

2010-03-03T07:25:00.005-06:00

The winter months have been very active thanks to El Nino so far this year. We saw very cold temperatures during the first two weeks of January. A few places even saw temperatures drop into the single digits. Later in the month we saw a more spring like pattern with a significant tornado outbreak on the 20th.

For February we saw a very active sub-tropical jet remain to our south along with the polar jet bringing very cold air to the region. This lead to a couple of major snow events in East Texas including up to a foot of snow near Canton on the 11th through the 12th. Another interesting fact for February was there were no tornadoes in the U.S. It looks as though the last time the U.S. went tornado free in February was 1947. Also the last month without a tornado in the U.S. was January 2003, which later became very active severe weather season. (For more information on this click here)

***UPDATE***
There is now an official report of one tornado that touched down near Taft, CA. Here is the report from the National Weather Service:

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA 323 PM PST TUE MAR 02 2010 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0445 PM TORNADO 15 NE TAFT 35.30N 119.27W 02/27/2010 F0 KERN CA TRAINED SPOTTER TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED A WEAK TORNADO THAT LASTED ABOUT 3 MINUTES ABOUT 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF TAFT. NO DAMAGE WAS REPORTED. RATED EF0.

Well, it looks as though now the pattern will shift once again. A deep trough looks to develop over the western U.S. and this will help send much warmer weather into the Southern Plains and Southeast. It looks as though the polar jet will retreat to the north with an active sub tropical continuing to our south. This will allow warmer weather to filter in to the area with the threat of thunderstorms developing.

The first large scale severe weather event could unfold across the Southern Plains Sunday through Monday. Right now it appears a strong surface low will develop in eastern Colorado Sunday bringing warm moist air into the area. How much moisture makes it in to the Plains will be the determining factor. Mid range forecast models have been flip flopping on the amount of instability and buoyancy available for thunderstorm development. The amount of wind shear needed for supercell development should not be an issue. So if enough moisture makes it into the Southern Plains we will more than likely see severe thunderstorms develop Sunday afternoon through Monday. Large low level clockwise hodographs would indicate there would be a threat for tornadoes with surfaced based convection.

So after a slow start to what normally would be an active severe weather season thanks to El Nino could be about to ramp up. If the storm track in February would have been a couple of hundred miles farther north, we would have seen at least threes sever weather events instead of snow here in East Texas. Well, the storm track is moving north again.

Winter Storm Warning/WInter Weather Advisory

2010-02-23T07:11:00.003-06:00

A winter storm warning is in effect for our southern counties today and a winter weather advisory is in effect for the I-20 corridor. An upper level low pressure will move across the state today causing widespread precipitation to break out. This will likely start out as a rain snow sleet mixture this morning but quickly transition to all snow by the late morning hours. Heavy snow is likely in some areas of East Texas today especially south of the Tyler Longview area. The Image above is the forecast snowfall for East Texas through tonight. Notice the swath of 4 plus inches of snow expected from Palestine to Center. Up to two inches of snow can be expected along the I-20 corridor as well. For our snow lover along the I-30 corridor, we may see a dusting to as much as an inch but it looks as though the majority of the snow will miss our northern counties.

1st Storm Chase of 2010

2010-02-22T18:26:00.011-06:00

The first storm chase of the 2010 season ended up providing a little excitement even though our target area was off. Saturday 12Z model runs were pointing to two areas of possible severe thunderstorm development. One was over Louisiana where low clouds and fog would make storm visibility horrible, and the second area was over Central Texas as a dryline was progged to move from Dallas to Waco during peak afternoon heating. We decided to choose the second target based on visibility and an anticipated pooling of moisture out ahead of the dryline. So we decided to head to Corsicana giving us a good north south east and west option depending on where storms developed. Once there a quick look at the new SPC mesoanalysis page, which is amazing, showed instability building in the Fairfield are so we headed south to wait for storm initiation. Once there I found an abandoned house with some very spooky trees and I had to take a shot. You see that at the top of the page. We waited for about 30 minutes and noticed the dewpoint beginning to drop, dry line was mixing through the area. So I took a glance at the NWS in Fort Worth’s Convective Parameters page, which usually performs very well, and noticed the convective interest near Dallas was in the upper 80s, meaning storms were likely to initiate there within the hour. So we raced north.

As we were driving north we noticed storms firing in the Metroplex. The southern storm riding the boundary took on a mini supercellular form. Radar showed 67.5 dbz that never reached higher than 20,000’, as you can see from the volumetric scan.

The next image is the velocity data. The rotation on radar was fairly week but from our vantage point, you could see the updraft tower rotation fairly well.

The reflectivity image shows a small hook on the southwest side of the storm which persisted for about 30 minutes on radar. The view we had of the storm as we approached western Kaufman County was incredible. We were able to see a flanking line, a well defined wall cloud, a tilted updraft, and what appears to be a tornado. In the photo I have it labeled as a tornado look alike but after seeing fellow storm chaser Simon Brewer blog, you can easily see this was a funnel and it was not on the ground. He was much closer to the updraft than I was when my photo was taken.

The storms updraft was quickly undercut by cooler drier air as it moved closer to us. A new updraft began to form on the southeast side of the storm. The photo below is of that rotation updraft with a small funnel trying to develop. Smile Paul!

This updraft was undercut as well and lead to the demise of a very nice mini supercell and left a rainbow coming out of the back of the storm.

New storms were trying to form to our east near Canton but even these storms didn’t have much of a chance as the dry boundary raced east and undercut the storms' development. All in all, not a bad 1st chase day especially for as low of a severe risk we had in Central Texas.

Winter Storm Watch for parts of East Texas

2010-02-22T06:24:00.006-06:00

A winter storm watch is in effect a good chunk of Texas including Anderson, Henderson, and Houston Counties in East Texas. An upper level low pressure associated with very cold air aloft will move across the state starting tonight. As this system moves in to East Texas, rain mixed with sleet and snow should start to fall by tomorrow morning. As the precipitation increases, surface temperatures will drop to near freezing by tomorrow afternoon causing snow to accumulate in some areas. Right now it appears the greatest chance of accumulating snowfall will be south of I-20 where some places could receive an inch or two. The greatest snowfall looks to occur from Palestine to Rusk and points south to a Crockett Lufkin line. Isolated amounts could be over 4 inches in these areas. Below is a snow fall accumulation map from the NAM forecast model. This model did very well predicting the East Texas snow 10 days ago 24 hours out so if it is right again, a few places could see as much as 6 inches of snow. It all depends on where the heaviest bands of snow develop which we really won't know until tomorrow, so this snowfall forecast could change.

Another Significant Snow on the Way?

2010-02-19T07:46:00.012-06:00

This could go down as one of the snowiest winters on record if the solution mid and long range forecast data suggests comes true. Right now we know a strong cold front will move through Sunday bringing us a chance of thunderstorms, some of which could reach severe limits, followed by cooler air next week. For quite sometime now all indications were the air mass behind the front would not be all that cold but continue to give East Texas below normal temperatures. But all that is beginning to change over the past 12 hours. New forecast data suggest a much colder week is in store for East Texas and an area of low pressure will once again develop to our south in the strong subtropical jet.

So what does all this point to? The chance of another significant snow across East Texas. Now remember, what I am showing you is the forecast trend, not an official forecast. However, if this trend continue over the next day or two, look for snow to be put back in our forecast.

Above is the forecast sounding for Tyler at noon on Tuesday afternoon of next week. This sounding screams heavy wet snow, like we saw last week. The forecast sounding 6 hours before and 6 hours after look about the same. This would give us a prolonged period of heavy wet snow, again only if this scenario pans out. A few things that peek my interest looking at this sounding. First, the atmosphere is at saturation from the surface to 300mb, basically this time of the year the stratosphere. This would allow for very heavy precipitation to fall. Also you can see the temperature of the atmosphere remains below freezing except the last 300' or so near the surface, much like last week. This means the snow will be very wet. Finally there is some upper level instability in this sounding. This means there could be some lightning in the clouds giving us, yes, thundersnow.

Below is the forecast for the accumulation of snowfall up to 120 hours out, or Tuesday afternoon. You can see that through the Dallas area, another significant snowfall is shown with over 10" in a few places.

The next image shows the snowfall farther east into East Texas. Again this only goes out to 120 hours when the heaviest snow begins to fall. If you interpolate the data it looks as though another swath of 4"-6" is possible across the northern half of East Texas.

Again a lot can and probably will change between now and this event. However, long range forecast data performed very well on last weeks snow event, even under forecast the snow amounts. This is in no way is an offical forecast for the area but, if this trend continues parts of East Texas could get more snow making this the snowiest winter on record.

4th Greatest Snowfall in Longview Last Week

2010-02-16T08:43:00.005-06:00

Last week's snowfall across East Texas produced an amazing amount of snow across the area. Notice the snowfall map above that parts of East Texas saw a foot of snow near Canton and points west. We already looked at the way this storm stacks up historically in Tyler. So now let's look at this storm historically in Longview. It looks as though this snow will also go down as the 4th greatest snowfall in Longview as well. Longview kept much better records with no gaps of missing years of data. The top five snowfall events for Longview are as followed:

#1 Dec 21st, 1929 14"
#2 Dec 15-16th, 1983 8.5"
#3 Jan 13th, 1982 8.25"
#4 Feb 11-12th, 2010 7.0"
#5 Feb 1-2nd, 1985 6.0"

4th Greatest Snowfall in Tyler Last Week

2010-02-16T06:04:00.013-06:00

Last week's snowfall across East Texas produced snowfall amounts many areas have not seen in over 20 years. So I thought I would dig through the record books to see how this snow compared to some of the greatest snowfalls in East Texas history. The official records for Tyler go back to 1883. However, there are a few holes in the data. The winter months are missing from 1883 through 1889. Also, the years 1906-1939and 1951-1954 are missing entirely. So my findings cannot be 100% accurate but from the data available, last week's snow will go down as the 3rd greatest snowfall off all time. Here is a list of the 5 greatest snowfalls in Tyler on record:

#1 Jan 14th, 1982 8.0"
#2 Jan 30th, 1949 7.5"
#3 Feb 11-12th, 2010 6.0"
#4 Jan 14th , 1944 6.0"
#5 Feb 1-2nd 1985 5.5"

Looking through the missing data years at other East Teas locations I found on December 21st, 1929 a strong snow storm covered most of East Texas with 10 to 16 inches of snow including 14 inches in Longview. So I have a hard time believing that Tyler did not receive at least 10 inches of snow during this event which would make last week's snow the 4th greatest of all time. There of course were other snow events during the missing data years but by judging what occurred around Tyler, I feel pretty confident these events did not eclipse the 6 inch mark. This snow event will also go down as the greatest amount of snow for the month of February in Tyler.

The Biggest Snow in Nearly 20 Years

2010-02-12T08:44:00.003-06:00

Widespread snowfall covered East Texas this morning. Amounts were mostly around 6 inches but a few areas received as much as 10 inches, Lindale for instance. I will be putting together a photo log of this event and create a snowfall map so everyone can see what an amazing event this really was.

Winter Storm Watch Issued

2010-02-10T17:24:00.004-06:00

The image above from the National Weather Service Shreveport

A winter storm watch is in effect for our central and eastern counties tomorrow afternoon through Friday morning. Widespread snowfall amount of two plus inches can be expected. A few heavy bands of snow could develop along and south of I-20 producing local amounts between 3 and 5 inches, possibly as high as 6 inches in localized areas. Most of the snow will accumulate on elevated and grassy surfaces but during periods of heavy snow, slushy roads will develop. Overnight Thursday night we will see some snow develop on roadways.

Snow Looking More Likely.

2010-02-10T09:53:00.006-06:00

I must admit this winter weather scenario for Thursday and Thursday night has been one if not the most challenging forecast I have had to deal with. Right now it looks as though snow will fall across most of East Texas tomorrow and could accumulated in some areas, maybe as much as two inches along the I-20 corridor east of Tyler. But it could be worse.

Our official forecast for snowfall accumulations as of 9:00AM Wednesday is for around an inch of snow to accumulate on grassy surfaces along a line from Athens to Bullard to Carthage and points north. Along the I-20 corridor East of Tyler there could be as much as 2 inches. But as I write this new forecast data is coming into the office trending a bigger snow event, like was advertised on Monday.

What makes this forecast so difficult is the fact the temperature I the atmosphere straddles the freezing line from the surface to about 7000 feet. Usually we see in a situation like this, a warm nose of air around 5000 feet that melts the snow on the way to the surface. With this system we do not see that however, there are places where the temperature around 5000 feet does go above freezing. In these areas snow would melt and only rain would reach the ground. The problem is locating where this will occur and even if it does, heavy precipitation could cool this warm nose of air back to the freezing point and then we are back to snow.

Now if this warm nose of air never makes it up to the I-20 corridor, which some forecast models are showing now, nothing but snow will fall from Athens to Carthage north and this would cause a large increase in snow accumulation. In fact, looking at the latest snowfall accumulation chart, a swath of 4 to 5 inches in being shown across the I-20 corridor. I look for winter storm watches to be issued later today for parts of East Texas after looking at the latest data. Again, a lot could happen between now and the event but it is looking more like snow will occur.

Rain Today, Snow Possible Later This Week

2010-02-08T09:06:00.006-06:00

A strong storm system will develop today across central Texas bringing a good chance of showers and thunderstorms today. Some of the storms could produce small hail thanks to the cold mid level temperatures today. The farther south you move today, the better chance of seeing a strong storm or two. A warm front will move into the extreme southern counties of East Texas today, from Crockett to Lufkin. Along and south of this line I can’t rule out an isolated severe storm however, most of the severe weather should remain well to our south.

Later this afternoon and into this evening, a strong cold front will usher in much colder air. Right now it appears most of the moisture will be out of the area as the cold air moves in however, there is a chance a few snow flurries could develop tonight mainly from I-20 north. This will set the stage for a possible winter storm starting as early as Wednesday night through Friday morning.

An area of low pressure will begin to develop across southwest Texas Wednesday afternoon. Right now it appears this low will track to the east remaining well to the south of East Texas. This will give most of East Texas a chance at seeing some snow develop. As moisture moves over the cold dome of air at the surface, light rain and sleet should develop across the area towards Late Wednesday night. This will help cool the atmospheric column allowing snow to reach the surface by Thursday morning. Right now forecast models are showing the potential of a prolonged light to moderate snow event. The meteogram below shows a detailed forecast with timeline of what could happen if the low pressure remains on its forecast track (remember, the timeline starts to the right and then moves left).

You can clearly see there is nearly a 36 hour period of snow (forecast is for Tyler). This could lead to a significant snowfall for parts of East Texas if this verifies. The latest accumulated snowfall forecast puts a swath of three to five inches of snow across parts of East Texas (See Below).

As with all winter weather forecast here in East Texas, a lot could and probably will change before this system develops. If the low pressure tracks farther north, then most of East Texas will see rain. A little farther south and much of East Texas will see snow. I will say this however. This system has been advertised for many days now and continues to show a significant threat of winter weather across parts of East Texas. Usually as we approach a winter weather event, forecast models trend farther north and warmer with systems. This system has trended colder and farther south. Stay tuned as we fine tune the forecast as more details become available.

Old Man Winter on his way Back!

2010-02-03T08:34:00.008-06:00

Next week it looks as though old man winter will make another visit to East Texas, and much of the eastern half of the Nation. There will also be two opportunities for winter weather next week as a couple of storm systems move through with cold air in place.

A strong arctic high pressure is building across the Canadian Prairies and will begin to move south this weekend. This will send a strong cold front racing towards East Texas either late Sunday or Monday giving us a chance of rain as this front moves through. An area of low pressure is forecast to develop somewhere along this front. If this low forms to our west, it will move south of East Texas along the Gulf coast as the cold air rushes in. If, and this is a big if, this happens, East Texas would be under the gun for a major snowstorm. Timing is always an issue here when it comes to winter forecasting. Usually the moisture is gone by the time the cold air moves in however, it is interesting that forecast models are beginning to show the cold air reaching East Texas before the moisture moves out. The image below is a meteogram from the 06Z GFS forecast model (the time line goes from right to left, opposite from what you would normally read).

The meteogram shows a strong front moving through dropping temperatures around Midnight Monday followed by a 12 hour period of snow, some of which would be heavy. Now let me stress this is just a trend. I am not forecasting a big snow storm early next week, right now I am just mentioning rain followed by cold weather but, it is very interesting to see these latest forecast model trends.

The next opportunity of winter weather would be late next week as the arctic high move east and an over running precipitation event takes shape. Warmer air from the Gulf could be forced over the cold dome of air at the surface causing clouds and precipitation to develop. With surface temperatures at or below normal and temperatures above freeing aloft, sleet and freezing rain would be the main threats with this event. The following two images are forecast maps for Friday evening. Notice the temperatures are in the upper 20s and low 30s with around 0.25” precipitation falling. This could produce a significant amount if ice accumulation.

Again this is a long way out. What I have covered are forecast trends, not an official forecast. I am very confident that a significant cold air mass will move into East Texas next week. If this air mass while moisture is in place, we will see a winter event. But in most cases, the moisture is gone when the cold air moves in making significant winter weather events very rare across East Texas. Stay tuned, more to come.

One of the Coldest Arctic Outbreaks 59 Years Ago Today

2010-02-02T10:29:00.005-06:00

On February 1st, 1951, A strong arctic high pressure moved south out of the Canadian Prairies and by the morning of the second, set up over East Texas. This produced some of the coldest temperatures in history including the coldest temperature ever in Lufkin. Along this front precipitation broke out and a large band of snow developed from Central Texas through the northern Gulf States. Dozens of record lows were set across the country the morning of the 2nd including a few of the following:

Lufkin, TX -2°F
Tyler, TX 2°F
Longveiw, TX 3°F
Texarkana, TX -3°F
Shreveport, LA 2°F
Lake Charles, LA 13°F
Beaumont, TX 13°F
College Station, TX 5°F
Memphis, TN -11°F
Tupelo, MS -1°F
Jonesboro, AR -3°F
Greenville, MS -2°F
Tuscaloosa, AL 5°F
Huntsville, AL 3°F
Muscle Shoals, AL 1°F
Nashville, TN -13°F

Parts of East Texas Could See Ice.

2010-01-29T08:11:00.005-06:00

As we were hinting to yesterday, forecast models are having a hard time handling this shallow arctic air mass moving into East Texas. Temperatures already are around five degrees colder than these models were indicating and if this trend continues, a few areas north of I-20 could see some freezing rain later this afternoon.

As an area of low pressure moves to our south, northeast winds are bringing much colder air into the area from the Ozarks this morning. This is allowing middle 30s to set a foundation across the northeastern corner of East Texas. Rain will continue to develop to are southwest throughout the day as temperatures continue to drop towards the freezing point. Ground temperatures across East Texas are well above freezing so we are not anticipating a significant icing event. However, temperatures in a few areas will drop down to the freezing pint before the rain moves out, so ice could begin to accumulate on elevated surfaces such as trees and power lines as well as bridges and over passes later today. The best chances of this occurring will be from a Sulphur Springs to Pittsburg to Jefferson and points north and east.

We are still watching an upper level disturbance that will move towards the Red River Valley this evening. Moisture wrapping around the back edge of this system could bring a few snow flurries or freezing drizzle to the northern half of East Texas. Right now we are not anticipating much in the way of travel problems however; please use caution while driving over bridges and overpasses this evening and overnight tonight. Stay tuned to your East Texas News Leader for the latest.

Line of Severe Storms Continues

2010-01-28T15:01:00.002-06:00

Line of storms continues. Good news is the storms are moving faster east than the low level jet. It is the low level jet that is fueling these storms with the lack of instability. Once these storms move off the jet axis, they should begin to weaken. This should happen just as these storms approach the Tyler area. Western counties could still see a severe wind gust or two. i plan on meeting these storms as they enter Kaufman CO. Watch for pictures later.

Wind Damage Reported With Storms

2010-01-28T13:35:00.002-06:00

Wind damage reported in Cross Plains at the Hwy 36 motel. Roof is damaged and power lines down. Damage caused by a possible tornado. If this line holds together it will be in our western counties around 5:30PM. Doppler radar shows sings of rotation all along this line with winds up to 60 mph all along this line.

Look at the Temperature Difference

2010-01-28T13:10:00.004-06:00

Temperatures range from 19 in Amarillo and Dalhart to 77 in Del Rio at 1PM. Severe storms are forming in central TX with a tornado warning out for Eastland CO. Strong gusty winds could occur across East Texas if this line holds together. Flash flood warning are also in effect with this line but as the line speeds up, flooding concerns will decrease.

On the cold side of the storm. I-40 around Amarillo is closed. Up to 6" of snow has fallen in the Panhandle with drifts up to 2 feet. Visibilities in heavy snow are under 100 yards. This is going to be a historic storm across parts of the Southern Plains. If you plan to travel across Oklahoma or the Texas Panhandle, cancel don't. Conditions are life threatening in these areas.

1"-2" of Rain for East Texas, Major Ice Storm North.

2010-01-28T09:23:00.002-06:00

A strong winter storm is developing across northwest Texas today and will spread a major ice and snow storm to our north. For East Texas this system will bring a round of very heavy rain with one to two inches likely for most of the area with a few localized spots receiving up to three inches. We are not anticipating any flooding problems at this time however, the will be ponding of water on roadways and some areas could see localized flooding during the heaviest rainfall tonight.

The big question on everyone’s mind is will we see any ice or snow with this system. As stated above, there will be a major winter storm to our north. The amount of snow and ice that falls to our north will actually have an impact on our forecast and could cause some areas to see a sleet and snow mixture before the precipitation moves out. The best chance of this occurring is from Terrell to Quitman to Mt. Pleasant and points north and west. It also still appears the lowest levels of the atmosphere will remain saturated through early Saturday morning. This could produce a period of freezing drizzle from 10PM Friday through about 3AM Saturday. This drizzle would be very light but could cause a few problems on elevated surfaces.

I will end with this little tid-bit of information. The last system we had like this in December that produced a band of snow to our north caused temperatures to drop much quicker than our forecast models indicated. This is where the human element to forecasting is really important. Temperatures were around 5 degrees colder than forecast and hit the freezing mark much. This was all due to a band of ice and snow to our north. So I do feel we will hit the freezing mark a little earlier tomorrow evening than the forecast models area showing now. This forecast will likely change over the next 24 hours as we get accumulating snow to our north so stay tuned to your East Texas News Leader for the latest.